2014 French Open preview: men's contenders

Right well the French Open is just under a week away, the second grand slam of the season, and I thought it was time I did a preview of who I think might be the favourite contenders to claim the title in Paris on the men's side and I then I will get to the ladies.  So let's get started!

Rafael Nadal



Well I have to start with Rafa as he is the clear favourite ever year at the French given his incredible winning record there as he has won the title more than any other player, surpassing Bjorn Borg's record of six titles two years ago, and having won eight titles at Roland Garros, which is more than any players has won one single grand slam title (surpassing Sampras and Federer at Wimbledon with seven each).  However all has not been rosy for Nadal this year as he has been struggling with his confidence on court as he lost out in the final of the Australian open to Stan Wawrinka, having suffered a back injury, he wasn't able to compete at his best, which hurt him badly.  And Rafa's clay court season hasn't been the strongest and in fact it has been arguably the worst he's had, as he has suffered three losses on the European clay season alone, with losses to fellow Spaniards, David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro, and most recently to Djokovic in Rome.  And even though Rafa won the title in Madrid it was in fact part due to his opponent, Kei Nishikori retiring from a back injury, who looked quite convincing at a set and a break up before his injury kicked in and Rafa turned the match on its head.  However despite these losses, I still see Rafa as the favourite to win the French again as his dominance is so strong there and no matter how bad his clay court season might have been by his standards, once he steps on that Philippe Chartrier court, he feels at home.  Whether or not he does remains to be seen, but I think its a fairly safe bet that he will reach the final once again and he might just claim his 9th title there.  However that might depend on the next man in the list.  Prediction: champion or finalist.

Novak Djokovic 

 

Well next in line has to be the one man who has been battering on the doors at Roland Garros for the last couple of years and that is Novak Djokovic.  Nole has so far had a pretty good season, after a slow beginning and suffering a shock loss to eventual champion Stan Wawrinka at the Australian open, he's turned things around very well and went on to win back to back Masters titles in Indian Wells and Miami, where he stunned an in form Federer in the former and an under par Rafa in the latter.  Novak however has had a bit of an injury scare as well with his wrist, which forced him to withdraw from Madrid, but it turned out to be less serious than initially feared and Nole went on to win the title last week in Rome (as pictured here as Novak holds the trophy for the Italian open) beating Rafa in the process.  And with another clay court title victory over his main rival in Rafa, Novak will go into the French Open as a firm favourite and as he came mighty close to beating the man from Mallorca last year, he might just take that one step further this year.  And if Novak does then he will return to the World No.1 spot and also complete his career slam, which will further cement his reputation as one of the greats in the game, so something tells me that this could be Nole's year.  Prediction: finalist or champion.

Stanislas Wawrinka 

 

Well I've put Stan Wawrinka quite high up in this list for a good reason, as for one he is the World No.3, and so far this year he really has proven it, given that he has won his first grand slam in Melbourne and also last month he won his first 1000 Masters series title in Monte Carlo.  And despite some lapses in form with losses at some tournaments in Indian Wells, Miami and even in Madrid and Rome this year, Stan still has proven when it comes to the big matches that he has got what it takes to go all the way.  Not only that Stan's best overall surface is clay and he reached the quarter finals at the French last year, before getting crushed by Rafa.  But Stan is not the same player he was a year ago, he is mentally stronger and has more belief in himself and has proven himself on the biggest stages and he claimed his biggest win against Rafa, so its a fair assumption that he can do it again here.  However whether or not Stan can pull off another surprise grand slam success at the French Open remains to be seen and will depend on his draw and his form and can he replicate what he did in Australia.  Will he?  I'm not entirely sure he will, but I think he can go really deep and maybe reach the last four.  Guess we'll find out.  Prediction: semi finals.

David Ferrer



I put David Ferrer up as the next contender simply because most people might forget just how good this guy is on a clay court.  Ferrer has often been classed as a clay court specialist, but that in itself is a bit of an insult as Andy Murray himself once said in a press conference "he's not a clay court specialist, he can play great on all surfaces" and that is a solid fact.  And its no mistake that Ferrer reached the final of the French open last year as he truly proved what a remarkable player he was at Roland Garros last year as he managed to reach the final without even dropping a set, before failing to win a single one in the final against Rafa.  But outside Djokovic and Federer's transcendent qualities on every surface, Ferrer is undoubtedly the second best clay court player in the world just now and has been for quite some time.  And if Ferrer has a good draw then I think there is a fair chance he can work his way into the final again, although he might not make it this year, I can definitely see him reach the last eight at a minimum or the last four.  Either way Ferrer won't win it however, as Rafa and Djokovic are both just that bit too good for him in Paris, but he will go deep.  Prediction: semi finals.

Andy Murray 



OK next up is Andy Murray who is naturally pegged further down this list given that he isn't the most natural clay court player, yet he has strung together some decent results in Paris, the best being three years ago when he reached the final four and lost to Nadal in a tight straight set match.  This year, Andy has not had a kind season so far and his return from his back surgery last year has seen him make slow progress in 2014, where he has failed so far to even reach the final of a tournament so far.  However things are starting to look more encouraging for Andy as after a poor show on the clay in Madrid two weeks ago, he put in an excellent performance last week in Rome, where he reached the quarter finals and played a superb match against Rafa, which was their first clash in almost three years and already is a contender for one of the best matches of the year.  So on that basis I'd dare say Andy has got the opportunity to do very well in Paris this year, especially after missing out playing last year, due to his back injury, he will want to make up some points and try and go as far as he can in the tournament.  Has Andy got a real chance of winning the French???  Honestly, no.  Andy has proven he's got the talent and skill to play well on clay, given enough practice and form, but it still remains the one surface that he has yet to even to reach a final on, and I don't think the French open is one final he will reach.  But I think Andy still has a good chance to get into the second week and make a decent run at RG.  Prediction: quarter finals.

Tomas Berdych 



Next is the big Czeck fella, Tomas Berdych, who has been a very consistent player in the slams lately and he reached the final four in Melbourne earlier this year, where he lost a close match to Stan Wawrinka, so his record in the big events are quite impressive.  Berdych however can be quite an erratic player and while he has a big powerful game, including a booming big serve and tremendous groundstrokes, he can lack the mental edge needed to win the big events.  Nonetheless I think Berdych can, given a good draw, do pretty well at the French Open and he may well get into the second week and give a good account of himself.  But can he win the title?  No, don't think so, but he's a safe bet to reach the last eight.  Prediction: quarter finals.

Roger Federer




Now you might wonder why Roger Federer is this far down the list, well the reason why is because he has been out of the game for a wee while given the birth of his twins, its left him off the tour and not match sharp, which was proven in his 2nd round loss to Jeremy Chardy last week in Rome.  Federer however has shown much better form in 2014 so far with a semi final appearance at the Australian Open, where he fell to Rafa, but put in a convincing display to beat Andy Murray in the quarter finals.  Roger also went on to win his first title in quite a while in Dubai, by beating Tomas Berdych in the final and he also reached the finals in Indian Wells and Monte Carlo.  However I just think that Roger's lack of preparation and time spent away from the tour lately might just go against him, however you can never write off the Swiss maestro.  So while I don't think Roger will win the title, I still think he can make the 2nd week, but its going to be a pinch to see him get any further than the last eight.  I might be wrong but we'll see.  Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.

Kei Nishikori



So next up is Kei Nishikori, who has made a real breakthrough this year as he broke into the top 10 after reaching the final of Madrid, where he very nearly could have taken out Rafa in the final as he was a set and a break up before he was forced to retire with a back injury.  So Kei has been looking very good this year especially on clay as he also won the Barcelona open as well so his performance on the red dirt bodes very well for Roland Garros.  So does Kei stand a realistic chance of winning the title?  Nope, but I do think he can go pretty far in the tournament and I'm fairly sure he will make the 2nd week and we could be looking at the Japenese No.1 reaching the last eight.  Prediction: quarter finals.


Grigor Dimitrov 



And last but far from last is the rising Bulgarian star, Grigor Dimitrov, who really has announced himself in the last year or so on the tour.  Dimitrov has been nicknamed "Baby Fed" as there has been many comparisons between his game and Federer's (although Grigor insists that he wasn't actually that influenced by Roger's playing when he grew up) but Dimitrov really has shown that he has the makings of a great player.  Dimitrov also scored his best result so far in the slams this year by reaching the quarter finals of the Australian Open where he played a tight match against Rafa before losing out in four sets, which shows his increasing mental toughness and grit.  Dimitrov has also scored big wins in his career so far as well, such as beating Djokovic, Murray and also Berdych and he will have the opportunities to build on that as the year goes on.  As for Grigor's chances at the French???  Well let's face it, he's not going to win the title, but I do think he has a fair chance of going pretty far into the event and I wouldn't be surprised if we see him in the 2nd week.  Prediction: quarter finals.

Right so that's it for my look at the men's contenders for the French Open title and I will be back soon with the ladies

Till then bye the now!  

Murray the man without a plan

Well its been quite a while since my last tennis post but I thought I would post up something about Andy Murray and his recent form since his return to the tour after having back surgery last year.  So let's have a look at how the British No.1 has been faring....

Well so far 2014 has been far from kind for Andy Murray with him having lost Ivan Lendl as his coach it has left a big gap to fill in his career and he is already keen to find a replacement pretty quick and has said he would ideally like to have someone in place by the time the French Open starts.  However given that it is now only two weeks until the French open begins it appears rather unlikely that Andy will be able to get a coach in place before it begins, especially as he himself has said its not ideal to hire a new coach just a few days before the beginning of a grand slam and he would rather spend time with the coach before diving head first into a major.

So this leaves open the strong possibility that Andy will go into the French open without a coach, which is in itself a worrying sign given his recent form, having sustained one of his worst defeats of the season just there at the Mutua Madrid open against Santiago Giraldo who beat Andy  emphatically in 6-3, 6-2.  And only two years ago this was a player Andy dismissed at the French open in straight sets, where the Colombian failed to even convert a single break point.  However times change and players improve as Giraldo has done that this year and there are also so many others players emerging to step up and challenge the "big four" which is now starting to dimish in strength.  Andy himself is now ranked lower than he has for almost six years as his ranking sunk to No.8 in the world, which could be worse, but he doesn't want to sink any lower otherwise he will be facing some of the top players even earlier in the tournament, such as facing Rafa in the 3rd round of the French, which isn't very encouraging!

And it has to be said that with Lendl now gone there is a big vaccum that needs to be filled and even Andy himself has said that he feels he has lost direction and motivation since his former coach has departed.  And when Lendl left it appears he took the mental edge he has given Andy with him, as we no longer now see a confident self assured fighter out on court, instead we have a man who doubts himself, and plays well one day and terrible the next.  And its this lack of consistency more than anything else Andy needs to address, as its all good and well he could go on to do fairly well at the French and the other slams, but he needs to play more consistently throughout the season, which is something he has always struggled to do over the last few years in the ATP events.  In the past Andy seemed to priortise winning events on the tour, while providing rather underwhelming results in the slams, but in recent years this has changed and it has become all about the majors, leaving himself short when it came to the ATP tour events.  And this is something where the other "big three" have excelled in both the majors and the tour events, which in that regard is where Andy stands apart, he's more than good enough to be ranked along side them, but he just struggles to consistently string it togther.   However since his return to the tour, his results on hard court so far haven't been too bad as he has reached three quarter finals at the Australian open, Rotterdam and Miami, and his best result was reaching the semi finals in Acapulco where he lost a very tight match to Grigor Dimitrov.  And on clay its always been Andy's weakest surface where he has not performed his best particularly in Madrid having never gotten past the last eight ever since the event changed surface to clay.  

However with Lendl gone, Andy certainly won't have a shortage of candidates to take over as his new coach and one of them being John McEnroe, who potentially could be an excellent choice for Andy to go with, although its ironic that his next coach could be one of his former coach's biggest rivals!   But its all a case of how good a fit would McEnroe be for Andy and will they partner up and then split just after a few weeks???  Who knows?  Andy needs to be certain as he very well knows, that he can get a coach that can fully commit to his busy schedule, which was something as time moved on that Lendl wasn't able to do, which possibly was in part one of the reasons Lendl chose to leave.  Although it does appear ironic that Lendl said one of the reasons he chose to move on was to play more on the seniors tour, which in itself is bizzare as McEnroe, who has expressed interest in coaching Andy, already plays alot on the seniors tour, yet he is willing to take the time to coach Andy as well!  This makes me think that Lendl's decision to leave in regards to playing more on the seniors tour is nothing but hot air and there were other reasons behind his departure.

What I do think though was Lendl timed the split badly just as Andy was heading into the Sony Open in Miami, where he was the defending champion, which no doubt left him feel dispirited.  Regardless of that though he put in a decent performance in reaching the quarter finals and played a pretty good match against Novak Djokovic, which saw him produce some of his best form we had seen since he won Wimbledon the year before.  But since then Andy Murray looks like a man who has no plan and without a coach he has lost his sense of direction and motivation and that is something that needs to address very quickly otherwise we could be looking at Andy making early exits at Queens and Wimbledon, which is something he will want to avoid at all costs.  And while Andy will want to make the right decision and get the right person for the job, which is the right thing to do, the longer he goes without a coach, he will have more chances of stringing together a series of bad results, which is the last thing he will want to do. 

But I'm sure that Andy will one day get back to his best form, if not at some point this season, then surely in the future he will get there.  Its been a tough time for him of late, not only with the depature of Lendl but also the tragic death of Elena Baltacha, a close personal family friend and his comeback to the tour could not be more different than Rafa's last year, but every player is different.  In the meantime with Rome and the French open ahead, Andy has no points to defend and he stands to gain points, so that's one encouraging thing that he has nothing to lose in either tournament and hopefully he can gain some if not in Rome then at Roland Garros, which he really needs to do.  And Andy could potentially face Marcel Granollers in his first match in Rome, whom he faced last year in his only match there and he was forced to retire due to his back injury.  And if is Andy is fortunate enough to beat either player then he could go on to face Santiago Giraldo again in the 3rd round which is not an enviable prospect, either that or play Jurgen Mezler or Marin Cilic.  Either way its not looking very promising for Andy in Rome either, but we will wait and see how his form is once he get's there.  And should he be lucky to reach the quarter finals then he could play Rafa, but given they haven't played for almost three years, it looks like at this rate their much anticipated match up is going to have to wait a bit longer.  (Update 12.05) In fact we now know it will be Marcel Granollers that Andy will play after all in Rome this year, so it will be a rematch and not an enviable one, so let's hope Andy is up to the task, because it won't be easy.     

So I will leave it there and let's hope Andy Murray can recover his form soon and that he get's the right person for his new coach.

And I will return with more posts once the French Open get's under way, in fact I will probably do a French open preview for the men and ladies with my pick of favourites to win the title.

Till then bye for now.