Right, its that time to do a list of my pick of the contenders for the final grand slam of the season, the US Open, which kicks in less than a week's time next Monday. And with some of the big names already confirmed as being out for the season, namely Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori, it has shaken things up this year quite a bit.
Anyway so let's take a look....
1. Roger Federer
At the top of the list is Roger Federer, who has been the undisputed No.1 player in the world this year so far having won two of the three grand slams so far this season, winning the US Open would put him up to 20 major titles, which is unbelievable when you even say it! And Roger's form this year has just gotten better and better as he has went on and already has six titles in the bag and remains just a smidgen away from overtaking Andy Murray as the World No.2 and if he were to win the title then Roger would reclaim the No.1 spot from Rafa, who has just overtaken Andy this week in the rankings.
The only problem I see for Roger however is his fitness as he had suffered a shock defeat to Alexander Zverev in the final of Montreal only a week ago that forced Rog to then pull out of the Cincinnati masters event with a back injury. This suggests that Roger may not be 100% going into the last major of the year and he will need to be if he is to have any chance of going the distance in New York on a gruelling hard court surface.
However if this year has tought us anything, its that Roger Federer continues to defy age and ranking as he was able to win his 18th grand slam at the Australian open (not 18 Aussie open titles of course!) just ranked 17 in the world, so surely he can go on to win the US Open. And if Roger's serve, forehand and backhand are all firing then he is sure to be the very one that will go on to claim this title. So, the way I see it is that he will either be the champ or on the outside chance he should, fitness permitting, reach the final.
Prediction: champion or finalist.
2. Rafael Nadal
At No.2 is the new World No.1, Rafael Nadal, who this week has overtaken Andy Murray and ended the Brit's 41 week stint as the world's top ranked player. Rafa already has had a very impressive season, particularly on clay having lost only one match and won his record 10th French open title. Rafa also made the final of the Australian open having lost to Roger Federer in a tight five set epic clash, so it shows that he has been very consistent so far in the slams this year, despite a 4th round loss at Wimbledon in another epic contest against Gilles Muller.
The only problems for Rafa so far however have been that he has been prone to upsets this season at the hard court tournaments as he was stunned by Denis Shapovalov in Montreal two weeks ago and Cincinnati, he was beaten by Nick Kyrgios. This instills enough doubt for me to say that there is a chance that Rafa could still struggle at Flushing Meadows if he comes up against an inspired young opponent such as a Zverev, Thiem or indeed Kyrgios.
However at the same time, when it comes to the slams, that's when Rafa tends to bring his A game and I think it would be silly to write off his chances at doing very well in New York, where has already been a two time champion. So, I think its not too crazy an idea to suggest that Rafa could win his 3rd title at Flushing Meadows, although if I were to put Roger in the final with Rafa, I would have to take Rafa as the finalist and for that alone I will say Rafa will most likely reach the final but might not necessarily emerge the champ.
Prediction: finalist
3. Alexander Zverev
At no.3 is the man that I would have to call the 3rd best player in the world this season and that is Alexander "Sasha" Zverev, who has had a stellar 2017 so far, having won four titles alredy and two them being Masters events in Rome and Montreal. Yep, the German wunerkind (wonder boy in German) has proven that he really is a star of the future having played brilliantly this season and risen to the top 10, he has improved out of the sight. So, surely he is certain to made that grand slam breakthrough pretty soon.
However, the problems I foresee with Zverev right now is his inexperience when it comes to the majors as he has not gotten past the 4th round of a slam but this will definitely change and I can certainly see him go deeper in New York. But right now, against the elite guys in Rafa and Roger over the best of five sets, I would still pick the older guys over Zverev right now even its possible that Zverev could upset both of them.
So, for me I think Zverev will go on a good run in New York and possibly reach the last four but in the end his inexperience at this level will see him come up a bit short.
Prediction: semi finals.
4. Grigor Dimitrov
Next is Grigor Dimitrov, who so far has had a pretty good 2017 also, even though he had suffered a little dip, he is firmly back on good form having just won his first Masters title in Cincinnati last week. This win alone shows that Grigor is starting to fulfill his potential as a future potential grand slam winner and just maybe his breakthrough could come if not this year and then most likely the next.
The only problem again with Dimitrov is even though he has a few years of experience behind him now on the tour, aged 26, he is still inexperienced at the latter stages of the slams, having reached only two major semi finals, however he did put in excellent performances at both in Melbourne (this year) and Wimbledon (in 2014). And Dimitrov will again have to most likely face one of the elite guys in order to reach the final not to mention even possibly face one of them IN the final.
Regardless of this though, I think Grigor can most likely enjoy a good solid run this year in New York and he will probably put in a strong performance that will see him go deeper than he has before at Flushing Meadows. So, for me I think Dimitrov should also possibly make the last four again like he did in Melbourne earlier this year before he bows out.
Prediction: semi finals.
5. Andy Murray
At No.5 is the former World No.1, Andy Murray, who has just lost the top spot this week to Rafa, who ended his impressive run of 41 weeks in the top spot. Although it has to be said that Andy's run at the top in terms of his performance has been less than impressive and this unfortunately has mainly been due to injuries and illness that lead to a series of surprise defeats to players that Andy otherwise would most likely have beaten himself.
Andy has also not played a competitive match since his defeat at the Wimbledon quarter final stages as he lost to the American big server, Sam Querrey in five sets as Andy's hip injury resurfaced during the match. This since has seen Andy undergo a period of rehab for his hip but last week there was the good news that he would be returning to the tour as he flew out to New York to starts his preparations for the US Open. So, this would suggest that Andy's hip injury has now largely abated and hopefully he will be fit enough to play the last major of the season.
However, the main problem with Andy going into this tournament is simply the lack of matchplay, as he will be going up against players, who have had a number of matches already under their belts, so Andy will need to hope for a kind draw to try and break him into the event. And if he does come up against a young, hungry opponent on good form early on in say the 1st or 2nd round, it could be curtains for Andy alot sooner rather than later.
Also his hip still remains an unknown quantity as we really don't know at this stage just how Andy's hip is although it must be better or else he wouldn't have chosen to compete in a gruelling best of five sets tournament on a hard court surface. But Andy's first match will be one that gives us an indication at just where he will be at and that could be his last if things were to go wrong for him and if the hip injury resurfaces but hopefully not.
But...one thing we do know about Andy Murray is that he is one of the great fighters in the game and one of the greatest returners also, so if his hip is better than he will definitely be motivated to play well at the last major of the season. Plus, Andy is also a former champ at the event having won his maiden slam at the US Open in 2012, who knows??? There could be a chance of a stunning win ahead of the former No.1.
However, I placed Andy Murray this far down the list for a reason and I don't think he will emerge the champion this year but I do think its still possible he could put in a decent run and he has not failed to reach the 2nd week of a major since 2010 at this very event, losing to Stan Wawrinka in the 3rd round. So, for that reason I think Andy will do his very best to maintain that consistency and I think he could potentially, if he puts in a good performance, reach the last eight or four before he could go out. However he could also easily go out in the 1st week also, so this is a tough one to judge with any kind of accuracy, so we will need to wait and see what is in store the British No.1.
Prediction: 3rd round, 4th round, quarter finals or semi finals.
6. Dominic Thiem
Next is Dominic Thiem, who so far has a bit of an up and down 2017, having played a brilliant clay court season, having been the only player to have beaten Rafa on the red dirt and having reached his 2nd consecutive semi final at the French open. However, Dom has also endured a very mixed season on other surfaces having lost on different events to other players, such as Robin Haase in Halle on the gras courts and most recently David Ferrer at Cincinnati on hard court, at the quarter final stage.
But, Thiem has enjoyed fairly consistent results in the slams so far this year, having reached the 4th round at the Australian open and Wimbledon and as previously mentioned, the semi finals at Roland Garros. So, I think its safe to say that Thiem could still put in a good performance this year and maybe reach the last eight for the first time at the US Open before potentially losing out.
Prediction: quarter finals.
7. Nick Kyrgios
Up next is Nick Kyrgios, who has had a pretty up and down year so far, particularly in the slams where he lost out early on in each major, not making it past the 2nd round in either Melbourne or Paris and he was forced to retire at Wimbledon in the 1st round.
However Nick has enjoyed better fortunes outside the slams having reached his first Masters final in Cincinnati last week where he beat Rafa and David Ferrer enroute to the final where he was finally beaten by Grigor Dimitrov. Kyrgios also is probably the only active player to have a winning head to head over Novak Djokovic as early this season he defeated the former World No.2, twice in a row both in straight sets and this shows that when Nick is on song, he really is on song.
The problem for Nick however is taking that form and bottling it for the big events and so far this season he has failed to do that, but that doesn't mean to say that Nick can't manage this in the last slam of the season. So, Nick remains an unknown quantity here for New York and he could go out early of he could enjoy a deep run but whatever happens I don't see him as the eventual champ in New York but maybe he might make the last 16 or 8 before he bows (or maybe crashes) out.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
8. Sam Querrey
Next is Sam Querrey, who put in a strong showing over the summer at Wimbledon and even earlier this year he enjoyed a great run in Mexico where he beat Rafa in the final to win his 2nd career ATP 500 event. Sam then later went on to enjoy further success in Mexico as he beat the Aussie, Thanasi Kokkinakis to claim his 2nd title of the season. Sam is also one of the best servers on the tour and he was able to serve Andy Murray off the court at Wimbledon and reached his maiden slam semi final in the process.
Sam, however despite his strengths as a player, also has his weaknesses and his big height of 6ft 6 against the best movers can leave him at a bit of a disadvantage and he can also tend to be a tad inconsistent in the big events. Sam also has a bad head to head over Roger and Rafa, so if he were to face either of them then its very possible over the best of five sets he will come out the losing end.
So, for me I think Sam has a decent chance of a good run and just maybe this year he could make his quarter final breakthrough in New York (his best record being the 4th round so far in 2010) but if not then maybe the last 16.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals
9. John Isner
Next up we have the towering American, John Isner, one of the best servers on the tour but also has some weapons other than his serve such as a powerful (but erratic) forehand and for his height of 6ft 10 inches, he moves fairly well. John has been fairly consistent at being the US No.1 player in the last few years and he also enjoyed a good run to the quarter finals at the US Open six years ago where he took on Andy Murray and lost in four close sets. So, John has the weapons to do some damage out at Flushing Meadows.
The main problem for Isner however is his height, which really does highlight his lack of mobility against the elite players, who have top notch athleticism and they can really run rings around him when its come to it. Isner most likely will against these guys have to rely on his serve, which will get him out of a few tight corners but ultimately the best guys will most likely prevail against him.
So, for me, I think John might possibly make a good run this season but don't be surprised if he only get's to the 3rd round or 4th round if possible but you never know, the big guy might have a surprise up his sleeve yet, so just maybe he could also reach the final eight.
Prediction: 3rd, 4th round or quarter finals.
10. Tomas Berdych
And last but not least is Tomas Berdych, who has actually enjoyed a decent season so far as he reached the semi finals at Wimbledon and played a solid match against Roger Federer and in fact handed him his toughest test of the tournament although still lost in straight sets. Berdych usually has been a consistent performer in the slams in recent years and you usually find him around for latter stages of the majors, which makes a good player to be reckoned with for making decent runs.
The problem however with Berdych is that he has always lacked the edge when it comes to taking on the top players, particularly the big four where he lost to more times than not in recent years and he often get's tight in the big matches when playing crunch time points. So, for this reason alone its tough to see Berdych ever win a grand slam anytime before he retires.
However, Berdych can still make a decent run of things in New York and its a tournament where he has reached the semis before back in 2012 and he has reached the 4th round minimum ever since then, which suggests he could do similar this year. So for me, Berdych has a chance of a decent run but I would say the last 16 or 8 would be his lot before he is bound to lose out.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
OTHER POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
Other contenders off the list include Marin Cilic, who made a great run to the final at Wimbledon this year before losing to Roger Federer in straight sets but Cilic has been suffering from an adductor injury that might see withdraw or suffer an early loss at the event so time will tell how the Croatian does.
Jo-Wilfred Tsonga could also do well at the tournament if he get's a decent draw and can get his game firing on all cylinders but he will stage have a tough ask to try and get himself into the position where he will reach the semis or even a final.
Gael Monfils next is another player, who could do very well in New York as he got to the semi finals last year before he lost to Novak Djokovic in four sets. Monfils however can tend to get tight in the big points against the very best players, which would most likely see him fail to get to the final. However Monfils could still do well here and put in a decent run although its difficult to see right just where he will get to.
Jack Sock is another home contender to do fairly well in New York as he previously reached the 4th round last year and he has enjoyed some reasonable results in the slams having reached the 3rd round at Melbourne and Wimbledon and 4th round in the French Open and as mentioned in New York. Sock will have a tough time though getting past the top guys though but he could still put in a good effort.
Juan Martin del Potro of course is another contender and former 2009 champion, who can never been counted out but his season so far has been very inconsistent, so it would be tough for me to suggest he will go beyond the 3rd or 4th round at Flushing Meadows but we will see how the big guy holds up.
David Ferrer has shown a few signs of resurgance in the last month or so as he claimed his first title in nearly two years in Sweden and reached the semis at the Cincinnati Masters last week that suggests that Ferrer could also do well in New York. However Ferrer will be up against the rising young guns, who are really now starting to become a major threat (no pun intended!).
And last of all is David Goffin, who has had an up and down season but he so far has reached two finals earler this year in Sofia and Rotterdam and he reached the quarter finals at the Australian open for the first time. Goffin, however also suffered an injury scare after he took a nasty tumble at Wimbledon that premuaturely ended his tournament there but he has since recovered, so maybe his season might continue in the right direction.
SIGN OFF
Right, so that's it for now and it remains for me to just say bye for now and see how the US Open goes and I will be back on here with a few posts once the tournament is well under way.
Until then adios!
