Novak Djokovic
Right so at the top of the tree I've put Novak Djokovic on here and why not? And yes OK the hard court swing in America has not been kind to Nole so far since he has returned after his Wimbledon triumph as he has lost out early in both Toronto and Cincinnati to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (the eventual champion in Toronto) and Tommy Robredo. What is behind this slump is anybody's guess, but again Nole has had some recent changes in his personal circumstances as he recently got married to his long time girlfriend, Jelena Ristic, who is also pregnant with their first child, so perhaps these are distractions for Nole that are getting in the way of his game. And even though Nole is the Wimbledon champion this year, the same thing happened to Andy Murray last year as well where he won the biggest title in the sport and everything after that was a hangover and he has won nothing since. I don't foresee this however happen to Novak though as he is a somewhat more resilient player than Andy is and when the US Open comes around I think he will work his way into the tournament and before you know it he will be in the final. So for me despite Nole's recent dip in form, I don't think its enough to keep him down for long and I personally think he will have an excellent chance of lifting the title in just over three weeks from now or if not, then he will be in the final. Prediction: champion or finalist.
Roger Federer
Next up I put Roger Federer and the reason why is because he has shown great form this year and after having lost out to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon I think he has a chance to take things that step further this time round. The only problem for Roger however is he has been prone to making alot of unforced errors in key matches this year most notably in the Wimbledon final and also even in Masters series finals he has been in such as Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Toronto where he got himself back into the match in the final set or blown a few key points and if he does that in the final in New York then he is sure to come up second best depending on who he faces, especially if its Rafa or Nole. But Roger has definitely shown very promising form in 2014 and has much improved his fitness from last year and I think he might just find that extra gear to take over the finish line this year at Flushing Meadows, which amazingly enough he hasn't won the title there in six years! And Roger has also just won his 6th title in Cincinnati which sees him cap his first 1000 Masters series title in two years, which shows he really is in top form going into New York. And now that Rafa has withdrawn from the US Open this really opens up the draw for Roger and right now there aren't many players apart from Nole that the Swiss maestro can't beat. And given the right draw this could well be Rog's year to claim his 6th US Open title as he's already claimed title no. 6 in Cincy, why not in New York???? Prediction: finalist or champion.
Grigor Dimitrov
Next up is Grigor Dimitrov who has had some mixed fortunes this year but he also shown he has great potential to become a future slam champion and he has already shown he can go deep into the big events this year having reached the semis at Wimbledon. And out of the new young guns, Dimitrov is without question the best and most well equipped to win a major, and he also has all the shots, the speed and movement to succeed. The only thing however that could derail Dimitrov is of course his lack of experience in the reaching the latter stages of the big events as he could well come up against one of the top three guys (sadly I have to discount Andy here). But he did show real grit against both Rafa in the Australian open quarter finals this year and also Novak in the semis at Wimbledon, and in both matches he had a chance to take them to a 5th set, so he definitely is edging closer to his goal to win that first maiden slam. So whilst I don't quite see Dimitrov as the outright favourite I think he definitely has a shot at going deep here into the second week and maybe earn a place in the last four. Prediction: semi finals.
Milos Raonic
After that is big Milos Raonic, the giant serving Canadian, who also has shown some impressive form in 2014 and also has proven he can reach the latter stages of the slams by reaching the quarter finals of the French open and the semis at Wimbledon. The big guy also has one of the best and most powerful and accurate serves in the game as well, which quite often can get him out of trouble in most situations. The problem with Raonic however is that he doesn't have much variety in his game and he hasn't quite got the tennis to win a major just yet and that big serve on its own won't be enough against the game's top returners such as Nole or Rafa or even Roger. So in order to Raonic to win he would need to inject a bit more variety in his game and become a better returner as that big serve will only get him so far against these guys. And he also has endured two straight set defeats this year in his slam quarter final and semi final exits at the French and Wimbledon, which isn't good enough for him to make a real dent against the big three guys. But given that Raonic has a favourable draw he is more than good enough to take down most other players that stand in his way so I think he could also make a good run to the 2nd week and maybe reach the last eight or four. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
Stanislas Wawrinka
Then we have Stan Wawrinka, who this year surprised everyone by claiming his maiden major title at the Australian open and stunning the three time defending champion Novak Djokovic in the quarter finals there. Stan has really been progressing well with his career this year but he has also had some ups and downs and shown that he still lacks overall consistency with on tour events as he has suffered some puzzling early defeats. This shows that when Stan is on he is very tough to beat and is almost unplayable, but when he is off he lacks the confidence to see things through and can succumb to the pressure. So while I think Stan has a good chance of making a fine run in New York I don't quite see him as the outright champion because of the mixed success he has had this year. But you can never count Stan out and he has at one time or another beaten all of the top three guys this year, except Andy (whom he has never played except in an exhibition match at the end of last year and lost to!). So whilst he can make a good run in New York I don't quite see him as the eventual champion so the last eight or four is on the cards. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Next is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has had a real up and down year so far but he did hit a big high in Toronto this month and he made a killer run to claim the title there after beating four top ten players in a row. Tsonga also has previously reached the final of the Australian open back in 2008 where he lost to Novak Djokovic, so its a fair beat that he can do deep here again in New York. The only thing with Tsonga though is he is a very streaky player and he can be very up or down and his game is either on or off. But when Tsonga's game is on he can just about beat anyone as he proved in Toronto there where he claimed his 2nd Masters career title, which given the big four's dominance of these events over the last eight or nine years, is quite impressive that he was able to claim a second one. So Tsonga will need to rekindle that form he discovered in Toronto in order to have any chance of winning his first slam in New York. So while I don't quite see him as a favourite to win the title I think he can have a decent run there at Flushing meadows and maybe make the last four or eight. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
David Ferrer
Then there is David Ferrer who is without a doubt one of the best players to have never won a major title and has only so far reached one slam final at the French open last year where he was soundly beaten by his compatriot Rafa. Ferrer however lacks confidence in his game when it comes to the big four (and I will include Andy this time!) in the slams and he has not claimed a win over them except Andy Murray at the French open, which was to be expected given clay is Andy's weakest surface and arguably Ferrer's best. Ferrer also has just capped off a very impressive week in Cincinnati where he reached the final and lost to Federer but he managed to nab a set in the process and put up a good fight before going down in three sets, which shows he is in good fettle going into New York. And Ferrer is a such a consistent player on all surfaces so he does have a great chance to get into the 2nd week. But will he be the eventual champion??? Don't think so, but reaching the last eight or maybe even the last four is a fairly safe bet here. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
Andy Murray
Next we have Britain's No.1 player, Andy Murray (OK as usual this will be a big one and split into two paragraphs!) and former 2012 champion in New York, who made his major breakthrough at Flushing meadows. Andy has proven over the years he has had remarkable consistency in the majors and has reached the quarter finals of his last 14 slam events and with Ivan Lendl in his corner he was able to claim two major titles, which is remarkable in itself, the other of course being Wimbledon last year. But.... all has not been good this year in the Murray camp as Andy has suffered a pretty woeful 2014 by his lofty standards and that is why he is so far down this list. Andy made a good start in Australia where after having just returned from back surgery, he put in a valiant effort against Roger Federer in the quarer finals there but eventually succumbed to defeat in four sets. Since then however Andy's resilience in tennis matches has dwindled somewhat dramatically and he has often put himself in a winning position in matches and blown his lead in the decisive set, a factor of this maybe attributed to the depature of Ivan Lendl, who was a big influence in improving his mental focus and determination. And Andy has worryingly squandered the lead in just about every tournament he has played this year, where he has had the advantage against players such as Raonic, Rafa, Tsonga and most recently Federer in the 2nd set of his match in Cincinnati, where he lost a 4-1 lead in the 2nd set to go on and lose the match in straight sets. Not only that Andy's two other grand slam losses were both in straight sets, where he lost emphatically to both Rafa at the French and Dimitrov at Wimbledon. This is not a good sign for Andy and it shows with these defeats piling up it will be a big dent to his confidence. And another concern is that Andy could finish 2014 without a single title to his name, especially given after the US open that he will only play the Shanghai and Paris Masters events before the ATP world tour finals (which he may not qualify for depending on his results as he is currently outside the top 8) where he is up against the rest of the field and not guaranteed any chance of a title win there. And in that regard I think it would be better if he were to even enter some of the smaller tournaments such as the China or Tokyo open before Shanghai to give himself an extra chance to win some more ranking points to increase his chances of winning a title and also qualifying for the year end championships.
And once again in regards to his game his main problem is his serve, as his first serve percentage is hovering about 50% which simply isn't good enough combined with a 75-80 mph second serve average speed, which leaves him wide open to attack. And after his crushing defeat at Wimbledon to Dimitrov it was a real wake-up call to the fact that he most likely will not win a major this year. Which begs the question: can Andy win the US Open???? In one word: no. Andy's level of tennis simply hasn't been good enough for him to win a slam this year and he has not even beaten a top 10 player this year or since his victory over Djokovic last year at Wimbledon. However I think he can still make the 2nd week, but once he faces a top 10 opponent he could come undone, especially if its Roger, Nole, Dimitrov or Raonic and again if he does get beaten it will most likely be because of a poor performance on his serve. So its a disappointing prediction but most likely a realistic one as the tennis Andy has played this year just hasn't been good enough to win him a major title (or any title!). So I think Andy could reach the last 16, 8 or at very best the semis, and if he could even get a top 10 win in the tournament maybe it will give him a boost to move a bit further. So to say that Andy will win the US open right now is highly unlikely, and even though its not impossible, I have to say at this stage I just don't see him as the eventual champion. But then again he has in the past saved his best for the slams and he did put in a good run at the French open this year, and with no pressure on his back to defend a title this year in New York, things could yet go well. Also on the bright side with Rafa now having withdrawn from the US Open, it means Andy will be seeded 8th again and that means he won't face either Roger or Nole before the quarter finals and he might even have a chance to avoid either of them before the semi finals if he is very lucky he could face possibly someone like David Ferrer or Tomas Berdych (neither a pushover though!) in the last eight. But that all lies ahead and so we will have to wait and see what the big apple has in store for Andy. Prediction: 4th round, quarter or semi finals.
Marin Cilic
Up next is Marin Cilic who has had quite an impressive 2014 so far and won some tournaments already and his partnership with Goran Ivanesivc has so far been fruitful and he has made a quarter final appearnce at Wimbledon, where he lost a tight match to Novak Djokovic. Cilic has also beaten top 10 players as well this year such as Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych, which show he has improved his mental toughness when facing adversity. However Cilic still shows signs of fragility and against the very top guys he often finds it tough to break through, so while he has the chance to go fairly deep into the tournament I think the big Croat while find himself sooner or later coming unstuck against the top 10 players, but a last 16 or 8 result is sure to be a good bet. Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
Tomas Berdych
And right at the end we have Tomas Berdych the big Czeck who has also had a bit of an up and down season but he made a good effort at the start of the year by reaching the semis at the Australian open for the first time and by doing so he has reached the semis of all four majors. Berdych also when he is on his game is very tough to beat and he has the power and the net game to turn out anybody's lights and he also holds a good record against players such as Andy Murray and even Roger Federer, who he defeated two years ago in the quarter finals. But Berdych lacks the mental edge to really make the breakthrough and while he reached the final of Wimbledon four years ago he folded against Rafa that year, which yet again shows when he comes up against the likes of Rafa or Novak, he just hasn't a chance. Berdych can also be quite erratic in the slams and he has off and on suffered some early exits, so whilst I don't think he will go out in the 2nd round here I think he will eventually fall in the last 16 or 8. Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
Soooooo that's it for my look at my contenders for the US Open title, one of them is sure to do it but who will remain to be seen. Rafa might also make his comeback depending on his wrist injury and if so he could be looking at a 3rd US Open title, but that will just have to wait for now and in a week's time we will see how things go.
And I shall leave you there.
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