So on Monday the fourth and final grand slam of the year begins at Flushing Meadows in New York City, yep its the 2011 US Open. So here's some of my thoughts on who and what might go on and just who might get through to the final on both the mens and ladies draws.
So with ladies first, I was thinking of a few favourites, naturally right at the top will be Serena Williams who has just recently made her comeback, and has already won two titles since then at Stanford and in Toronto. Serena had serious injuries with two blood clots, so the fact she has managed to come back into the sport has been quite incredible so it would be just the perfect finish to her year to come in and win her home soil title once more. Other potential favourites could well be Victoria Azarenka, who has been playing some very good tennis of late, and is also quite an aggressive player as she really goes for her shots, and is seeded as the World No.5, however she has a tendancy to become injury prone so it remains to be seen how she will fare in New York. Maria Sharapova of course is another strong favourite as she has made quite a really good comeback also this year, having won two titles also in Rome and Cincinnati this year, and reached the Wimbledon final. But Maria's game is pretty erratic and she has been known to serve up double faults and unforced errors like an overloaded dessert tray, but her sheer determination and strength of character still make her a favourite.
Then of course there is the current World No.1 Caroline Wozniacki, who has of yet never won a grand slam, but this would be a great place to start. But Caroline has had a dip in form lately as she went out early in both Toronto and Cincinnati, but she has made up for that since in New Haven last week as she won her 4th title in a row there (a record in its own) and her 18th overall. But can she win a grand slam here in New York???? Well with all these names its hard to tell, she certainly has the stamina and mental strength, but there are a few holes in her game, such as her weak forehand and she isn't the most natural vollier, which can leave her vulnerable to other player's shots. Last year she did very well in getting to the semi finals, but this year she hasn't fared so well in the slams, having reached only the 3rd round at the French Open and the 4th at Wimbledon. But hard court is her best surface so she must try her best to make an example of that, and having won in New Haven will give her a boost going into the US Open, and that's Caroline and Andy both tied at 18 titles each, so it would be great if they could win their first major in New York to make it 19 all, but we'll see.
So onto the mens side of the draw, well the top 4 seeds have to be the overwhelming favourites going into the US Open, but that of course doesn't mean someone else might not get in there as well. At Wimbledon for example Jo-Wilfried Tsonga put out Federer in the quarter finals and they are in the same side of the draw again, so there is that danger that Tsonga could do it again. Rafa also has looked pretty vulnerable since his Wimbledon defeat to Djokovic, and put in poor performances in Toronto and Cincinnati, but when it comes to the slams, I'm sure Rafa will regroup and get back to his best form or somewhere near to it. So I would definitely expect Roger and Rafa to be back on form at the US Open, upsets could happen and if they do for both of them it could dramatically increase the other two's chances.
Rafa however who does respect his opponents seems to have built up a bit animosity towards Djokovic this year, I'm sure its not on a personal level, but on a professional level, as he obviously feels dismayed at having lost to the Serb 5 times in a row. And I have to say if Rafa does make it to the final and faces Djokovic once more, I would have to put my money on Djokovic winning, its a safe bet, but I can't really say at this stage of course we will find out on September 11 (which also marks the 10th anniversary of the terrorist attack on New York, not exactly the best day to play a final maybe). All we know for sure is that so far this year Djokovic has got the measure of Nadal's game, and this is a real problem for Rafa, and he has said since in press conferences that he needs to find a solution. I think Rafa will at some point beat Djokovic again, but it may not be anytime this year, so the Spaniard will need to bide his time and find that moment.
Which brings me onto Djokovic, who has apart from lost out in two tournaments, won every other title he has taken part in, 2 Grand Slams, 5 Masters, the Serbia Open and Dubai, make for a mighty impressive year so far, but can he keep it up in New York??? Well if he is fit and well there is no reason that he shouldn't win the US Open or at least be in with the strongest chance as he is the World No.1 so naturally he is right up there at the top. However Djokovic had sustained a shoulder injury in Cincinnati which saw him lose the Cincinnati title to Andy Murray, what if that injury reappears throughout the US Open??? Well it is possible, but I'm positive Djokovic will have done all the recovery preparation necessary to ensure he will be fine for this title, and its one he certainly won't want to miss. So naturally if Djokovic will be back to full fitness he will certainly be the overwhelming favourite.
Which brings us onto the last of the top four, and well we know a thing or two about him already this year, the British No.1 Andy Murray (never mentioned him before though!!). Andy so far as we all know, has never won a grand slam, he's been in three finals, but unfortunately for him he was up against formidable opponents in each one. However looking at those three finals, first off the US Open 2008 final, Andy was up against Federer who was still in his heyday and naturally you would expect him to take out the British Numero uno and did in 6-2, 7-5, 6-2. Next up again he played Federer in Melbourne last year and faired a bit better, but still was handed another defeat, which resulted in 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(11). And this year he faced Djokovic, who was on fire and went in all guns blazing and handed Andy probably his worst defeat in 6-4, 6-2, 6-3. However Andy has faired better since playing Djokovic in that final, having played a very close match in Rome earlier this year and beaten him in Cincinnati, albeit through Djoko's retiral due to injury. So if he does by some chance reach that final and faces Djokovic I do hope he is ready to give him yet another real match.
But I do have a better feeling about Andy Murray this year at the US Open, he's walking into the tournament in a much stronger position, having won in Cincinnati. He did the same in 2008, having won Cincinnati, again defeating Djokovic no less, and he reached the US Open final that year too. Can he do it this year and take it that step further???????? Well I've asked this question time and time again so I guess the only real way we will find out is to see if he is still there come Day 13, then we'll find out. But the sceptic in me again says he could fall to Nadal once more, I sincerely hope not, if I want Andy to repeat one thing from the 2008 US Open, its his defeat of Rafa, Andy's best surface is hard court, but Nadal is no slouch on that surface either. But this time we want Andy to prove he can do it, this is his best chance, and if he comes in strong to the tournament, conserves energy and dismisses his first four opponents or so in straight sets to leave more in the tank for the latter stages, then he's got a really good shout. He has a potentially tough draw of course, he faces Sondev Devarmann in his opening round, which hopefully won't give him too much trouble, but after that he could potentially face Robin Haase, then Feliciano Lopez, and then Stan Wawrinka. And it was Wawrinka that put out Andy last year, but I don't think the same thing will happen to him this year, as I'm sure he will be in it for the long haul, or at least till the semis where he most likely could face Rafa.
So I'm not saying Andy will win it, he certainly is capable of it, but its all down to him and those other three guys and who plays their best tennis on the day.
So that's it.
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