Well its another year for tennis (yep another tennis post!) and the first grand slam of the season is nearly upon us, as the Australian open starts on Sunday at midnight (technically 11am on Monday morning, Melbourne time). So no doubt its going to be another exciting tournament this year, and again as its a new season, it raises question marks as to why is going to win the title, so here's a bit of speculation.
On the men's side, there is of course the top four, who will definitely come into Melbourne in fine form, however in the past 8 years, its all been about the top 3 players as no one else has come close to winning the Aussie title. And personally I think its about high time that someone else stepped in there and took it from them, and for me that one man should be Andy Murray. Andy so far has been in two Melbourne finals, in the last two years, and in both he was roundly beaten by Federer and Djokovic. But this year, and with the appointment of his new coach Ivan Lendl, here's hoping that Andy crank his game up another notch and take that trophy off Djokovic. Although its difficult to say at this stage how well Andy will play under Lendl's instruction against the top three, he could lose again, but that all remains to be seen. And even if he does, and still manages to perform really well in say reaching the semis or the final, he can at least take heart in that he has another three slams to really hone his game and his mental belief.
But Andy doesn't have the kindest of draws, as he will face Djokovic in the semis, should he get there, he will have to play the match of his life to get past him, either that or hope Djokovic isn't on form by then, which is very unlikely. And it also boils down to taking from Lendl, his knowledge and experience, and applying that in the big matches. But if he can do that, then there is no reason why Andy shouldn't be able to defeat any of the top three guys to lift that trophy, and in the end if it is a close match, it can come down to only one point. So its going to be exciting and nerve wracking watching Muzza progress through the tournament and see if he can make it to his 3rd final.
So onto the top three, who is going to have the best chance there? Well in my opinion its got to be down to either Djokovic or Federer, naturally Djoko is the favourite out of those two, being number one and also previously beaten Federer in two Aussie opens. Its also a tournament which he has done extremely well in obviously, having won there twice, the surface definitely favours and if Djokovic can play anything like he did last year, then no one will get a look-in. However Federer finished off last year in great style again, having won the ATP World Tour Finals for second time in a row, although he wasn't able to apply that to Melbourne last year, but each year is different, so there could be a chance that Roger will win too. Roger definitely still has something to prove, as before he retires, he surely will want another couple of slams under his belt (or shorts, that would be tough, mind!). And then there is Rafa, and the expectations of Rafa winning again seem to be remote, but he too could turn it around and shock everyone by taking his 2nd title there, it would also be great revenge for him if he manages to defeat Djokovic in the final, and snap his losing streak. In Doha, we did see signs of the old hungry Rafa back on court, the determination was definitely there, so I think he will definitely do his damndest to put that in practise in Melbourne.
And outside the top four guys there is also another couple of players worth considering, particularly Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who finished off last year in fine style reach the ATP Finals against Federer, and was a previous finalist in Melbourne as well. Tsonga is without a great player, although he isn't always consistent, but last year in the second half he definitely showed amazing progress, reaching the Wimbledon semis, US Open quarters, Paris Masters final and the already mentioned ATP year end championships. Tsonga definitely also has the game and the power to defeat these guys, so he definitely cannot be counted out. Then there is Juan Martin Del Potro, who made a terrific comeback last year, starting off 2011 ranked as about 483 and ending it as the world no 11! That's quite a meteoric rise over 12 months, and throughout last year, Del Potro showed just how he is one of the best players in the world on the men's tour. Also already having been a slam champion and the only guy outside the top three to have won a major in the last 8 years, it makes Delpo a strong contender. But his tennis in the slams in 2011 wasn't the best, despite very tight matches against Djokovic and Rafa, but you can never count him out, and its a new season.
So quickly on the ladies tour, there are a few favourites, the main one being Petra Kvitova, who last year announced her arrival as a major force in the womens' game, winning both Wimbledon and the WTA Championships. Although Kvitova's one weakness is her inconsistency, she can either be unbeatable in a tournament, or she can go out early or falter near the end, as she did against Li Na this week in Sydney. So it does leave a small doubt about her, as there are some players who could upset her, but regardless I think she is one of the top favourites. There is also Serena Williams, who did roll her ankle a couple of weeks ago, but she too, fitnessing permitting will be a strong threat to everyone else in the draw. And Kim Clijsters, who is the defending champion, will be a big threat to the other players as well, although she also sustained a hip injury last week in Brisbane, but if she is all well for Melbourne, then there is every chance she could defend her title. And another favourite worth considering could be Victoria Azarenka, who has just won the title in Sydney against Li Na, and also reached the WTA Championships final last year against Petra Kvitova. So the field in the ladies is wide open, far more so than the man.
Right that will do for now, more will follow once the Aussie open is well under way, so its going to be exciting to find out just who is going to make through.
Till then that's it!
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