OK so as somewhat vague the title of my post may appear it does ask a few questions, and those questions belong to the top 4 men's tennis players just now, as they head for Roland Garros, which is in just a week's time, so basically its simple enough: who will win the French Open?????? Well here is more on what I think...
To start off with, why not start with the World No.1, Novak Djokovic, who is trying to win his career slam, having won the other majors, the Australian, US Open and Wimbledon, the red dirt slam still eludes him. So Djokovic has made no bones about his ambitions to win the French Open this year, in fact its something he has been utterly determined to do for years, but hasn't quite got there yet. Last year when he had that amazing 41 match winning streak, it looked very likely he could have been the French Open champion should he have gotten to the final, however it took one of Federer's best performances in years to defeat him. And this year no doubt Djokovic will be looking for revenge over Federer in order to reach that final and seize his chance. Djoko also has a great winning record over Rafa as it is, and as I type this, they are as yet to play their final at the Rome Open, which has been postponed until tomorrow, so tomorrow's result will be a good indicator as to where Djokovic's clay game stacks up against the king's. But to rate his chances, well to be honest you would be mad to write off his chances, as they are certainly very strong, but its hard to tell as he may have won the other three majors, but its quite something else beat the king of clay on his best surface in his favourite event. So tomorrow should he beat Rafa it could be strong indicator pointing towards the possible fact he could win the French Open, but if he doesn't, I would be inclined to go the other way.
So onto Rafa, who well, his record at RG speaks for itself, having the French Open 6 times, equalling Bjorn Borg's record, so he will be determined to make history and make it number 7. Can Rafa do it???? Well he definitely can, and he is still my favourite to win the French, and you could argue that Djokovic might have the mental edge on him, but I'm not entirely convinced at Roland Garros if Djokovic can actually pull out that win. If Djokovic as I said wins in Rome tomorrow, its possible he could win the French, as he will go into it with alot of confidence having beaten the king. But the Masters tournaments aren't the majors, which are a different kettle of fish altogether, and Rafa will fight tooth and nail, and hammer and tong to hold onto that title. And judging by the excellent final they played at the Australian Open earlier this year, their rivalry is looking stronger than ever and after getting that first win over Djokovic in Monte Carlo last month, it could give Rafa that little edge he needs to get back to beating Djokovic. Also having lost the last three majors, it would be the ultimate revenge if Rafa could get his own back in RG in three weeks time.
Now onto Roger Federer, who this year has actually been making a very impressive comeback on the ATP tour, having clocked up four titles already this year in Rotterdam, Doha, Indian Wells and last week in Madrid and is eyeing the World No.1 spot, and he has already suceeded in getting to No.2 spot. However Roger has always played second fiddle to Rafa on the clay, so I'm not convinced he will ever be able to get past him at RG, as its something he has failed to do since they competed in the 2006 final. However Roger does stand a good chance of getting to the final if he plays anything like he did last year, but for me, even though he has won the title once, I still think it was a one off deal, and he won't be likely to win again. But Roger has nothing left to prove, having won them all, he can still leave with his head held high, and I'm sure he will already be thinking about the grass of SW19.
And finally we have the world numero 4, Andy Murray, who frankly of late has had a dip in form, as his clay court season so far has been pretty uninspiring. Andy has managed to reach two quarter finals this year on the red dirt in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. But in both matches Andy failed to pull out the win or anything special that would show that he can compete with the best players on clay. So it was almost like his clay season last year was a bit of a one off, as he played so well reaching the semi finals, one of them being the French Open, which was a great effort. Plus Andy already said that after his defeat against Richard Gasquet last week in Rome, that he felt his back was still sore after his injury from the week before Madrid. So this does leave a worrying question mark over Andy's chances in going deep at the French Open. For me it has to be said here and now that Andy doesn't stand a chance of winning the French Open, and he definitely doesn't stand a chance of taking Rafa, or Federer on clay, maybe Djokovic, but he would have to play his absolute best, and physically its doubtful that he will be up to it.
However it also has to be said that Andy's poor form on the clay this year so far has been in the Masters events and not in Roland Garros, and I do believe his motivation and energy will be much higher than it was in either Monte Carlo or Rome, come the French Open. But I definitely think he won't win the title, and if he carries on performing the way he had in the Monte Carlo, Barcelona or Rome, he will be lucky to get past the 3rd round. But as I said, its the second grand slam of the year, and his motivation will be very high, so if he is in any pain, then he will as Ivan Lendl once said, need to be prepared to fight through it. So hopefully fingers crossed for Andy that he does at least get through to the quarter finals or even the semis again this year. And I don't fully rate his chances of winning a slam this year, but what he can do is try and build on his terrific effort he displayed in the Australian Open, and keep going and digging as deep as he can, even if he loses, try and make it as tight and close a match as possible, so that way he knows he's going in the right direction. If Andy can do that at the French, Wimbledon and the US Open, then he's got a chance if not in 2012, then definitely in 2013 to make that final step.
And as a quick update (24.05.12) Andy's preparations took another, albeit minor hit today, as he suffered another loss in his exhibition match to the Latvian player, Ernests Gulbis, who ranked No.92 in the world, defeated the ailing Andy in straight sets 7-6(4), 7-6(4). In the 1st set Andy was 4-1 up even, and yet he capitulated (I love that word!) on serve yet again, but credit deserves to go to Gulbis, who played really well as the match progressed.
But its another troubling sign from the Muzza, and so far his clay court season has been a bit of a write off, having only won 5 matches in three tournaments, its not been a very inspiring start. It also appears that his back has been troubling him still as well, and with the French Open beginning this week, his injury couldn't have been timed worse. If Andy is to have any chance of going deep in the French open, he will have to be in great shape, and his fitness during the clay season so far has been not been the best given his back injury.
And another update (25.05.12) the RG draw has been announced and the draw is much the same as in previous grand slams, with Andy being drawn on the same side as Rafa, so quite easy really! ;-) No, but he will have quite a tough passage to a potential semi final meeting with Rafa, as he may have to go through the likes of Jarko Neimenin, Bernard Tomic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer, who he could meet in the quarter finals, not an enviable prospect, given his current form on the clay. Andy has however allayed some of the fears of his fitness as he has said that his back is getting better day by day and he is feeling good, so hopefully that bodes well for making some progress at the French. And he will also have Ivan Lendl's knowledge and experience to draw on, and hopefully it will prove invaluable to his progress at Roland Garros. So however his campaign goes, I wish him the very best of luck, and if his plan is to save the best for last, then this is as good a time as any to produce it.
And quickly Djokovic will again be on the same side of the draw as Federer, probably so they can set up another epic encounter like their superb match last year in the semis. But this time Djokovic will be absolutely determined to get past Federer and reach that final, and I would be moderately surprised if he didn't, but we can leave that for another day (or rather two weeks today!).
Right that's it for now!
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