OK so now onto the men's preview of the Australian Open as I look at my pick of the bunch for possible contenders at the first slam of the new season. Regretfully before I start, as we know, Rafa will not be participating in Melbourne this year, due to a stomach virus, and he won't make a return to the tour until the end of February, so let's hope he makes a fast recovery.
So to start off at the top, we have Novak Djokovic, who has won the title for the last two years running and for me he has to be the absolute favourite to win here again. Novak won his first major in Melbourne back in 2008, and for me I think this is the slam he can gain real owernship over, just like Rafa has at the French Open, I do believe that Djokovic will win this title at least another 2 or 3 times before he retires. So if I had to pick the top favourite, it has to be Nole, and he really is back on top of his game again as well, after his level dipping slightly during 2012, he went on to defeat Roger Federer in the year end championships, which no doubt gave him a real boost. And in terms of putting away a player, there is no one more difficult to put away than Novak Djokovic, who never gives up on any point, with his first class defensive play, speed, court coverage and sheer flexibility which is why he is the World No.1 (no one else can do the splits like him!). And as Nole has re-established his position as the world No.1 again, I think he will continue to dominate the game over the next few years, so to say he will win the Australian open again is a fairly safe bet. However safe bets aren't always safe, as Nole's nemesis would be my next best choice.....
And that man is Andy Murray, as Andy has already proved he has the chops to win a major, after finally getting the monkey off his back at the US Open last year. So does he have a good shot at winning the title???? Absolutely, as in regards to Djokovic while he may lead their head to head 10-7, there really hasn't been much between them and their games, in terms of return, defence and fitness, and their last few matches have been so close, and I'm sure their terrific rivalry will continue to improve this year, which is a scary thought! So while I wouldn't put Andy as the outright favourite to win, he definitely has a really good chance to do so, and I hope he does, and in doing so let's hope its an Andy vs Nole final. However if Andy were to play Roger in the semis, there is still that danger he could lose, as Andy struggles against Federer, once he get's ahead in a match, its tough for Andy to get back into the game. So if Andy were to play Rog he would have to ensure he got off to a good start and try and maintain his lead. And the Muzza also struggles with consistency at times, especially on his serve, as he infamously has struggled to get good 1st serve percentages in, which means he could end up on court grinding it out more than he needs to, due to playing sloppy service games or being bossed in the points by his opponent. But all that aside, Andy has grown as a player since this time last year, and with that 1st major title behind him, more is sure to follow at some point, and Melbourne would be the perfect place to follow that up.
Speaking of which, next up is Roger Federer, who last year really got back on his game by securing the No.1 spot for three months or so, as well as adding another major to his collection with a 7th Wimbledon title. Roger Federer's record speaks for itself as well, 76 career titles, 17 grand slams, and when he is on his game, the guy is simply unplayable. In terms of physical fitness however, its debatable just how well Roger can last in the blazing heat in Melbourne, as over 7 rounds and 5 set matches, its a big ask for him to try and battle his way past the other top guys, especially Novak, who has beaten Federer in their last two semi final meetings there. And given that Roger is that bit older than the rest of the competition that makes him a step slower than Nole and Andy for example, especially when moving in and out of the corners on the court. But for Roger I think you would be mad or both to dismiss his chance at winning another title in Melbourne, and with him taking extra time to prep for the tournament, I'm sure he will be fit and ready to have another go at picking up his 18th career major title. Unless en-route before the final Roger meets the next man I will discuss...
Which is Juan Martin Del Potro, who remains the only man, other than Rafa, to defeat Federer in the final of a grand slam. Delpo after taking a year in 2010 to have wrist surgery, made a resurgance in 2011, with his ranking having gone from about 485 to 11 in the space of 11 months! In 2012 he also made further strides as he won the Olympic bronze medal in the play-off against Novak Djokovic, and in their last two meetings, Delpo has gotten the better of Federer. So if the two of them are drawn together, Delpo will pose a serious threat to Federer's chances of winning. And Del Potro as I have already said is a grand slam champion, so he knows what it takes to win one, so for me has an excellent chance of winning the title as well, especially as he is the only man other than Andy Murray, outside the top three to have won a major in the last 10 years! And for that reason he is 4th favourite to claim the Norman Brookes challenge cup (the name of the trophy if you don't know!).
So onto some of the other possible contenders, first off we have David Ferrer, who last year had the best season of his career, having won not only the most titles of any player last year (7), but also the most matches (76). Ferrer also clinched the biggest title of his career at the Paris masters last year, which was thoroughly well deserved as being in the top 10 he deserves nothing less. Ferrer also last year had a good run in the majors, as he reached the quarter finals at the Australian open and Wimbledon, and the semi finals at the French and the US Open. However Ferrer doesn't have the big weapons that the top three have (or Delpo has for that matter, but he does lead their head to head) and in that department has always struggled against them, so it will be tough for him to get past them. But Ferrer still remains one the biggest competitors on the tour, and never gives up on any point and fights to the very end, so if he will be beat, he will go down fighting.
Next up there is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who was a former finalist in Melbourne, when he played Novak Djokovic in 2008, but he hasn't reached the final of a major since, and he is somwaht inconsistent in his results also. Regardless Tsonga has done well at the majors last year, having reached the quarter finals of the French and the semi finals at Wimbledon, so its fair to say he will have another good run in Melbourne, if he is on his game. After that we have Tomas Berdych, who was also a former finalist at Wimbledon, who has the game to beat anyone, with his powerful serve and his groundstrokes, he can knock any player off their ryhthym. Berdych also poses a strong threat to players such as Federer and Murray, who he has good head to heads against (4-4 with Andy, and well ok Federer leads 11-5) and has what it takes to topple them. But Berdy still lacks the mental focus when playing in the big matches, as he tends to come up a bit short, and when it comes to players like Djokovic (who dominates their head to head 8-1) he always struggles to get to the finishing line. Regardless Berdych remains a tough obstacle for any player to get past, especially when he is on form.
And finally I thought I would add the new kid on the block, Milos Raonic from Canada, who is fast rising in the game, and is now sitting at No.13 in the world. Raonic has one of the biggest and more importantly consistent serves in the game, and that will prove to be a serious threat for anyone in his side of the draw. Roanic has also already beaten some of the big names, especially Andy Murray, whom he leads their head to head 2-1, and Andy has struggled against the big fella's serve in those defeats. Raonic has also had some pretty close tight matches with Federer and he proved in those matches he has what it takes to be a real threat to the top guys in the game as well. But Raonic's downfall is his lack of experience and he has also never gotten past the 4th round in a major so far, but that will change quite soon I think. So while he is an outsider, he remains a tough one for any player to get past.
So that's it for my preview of the Australian Open, more to follow once its under way. In the meantime some of the top players are in action this week, with Andy Murray playing at the Brisbane International, which he is the defending champion of. But can he defend the title???? Who knows, as Andy has always been a bit up and down on the ATP tour, and he has a tough draw to face with potentially Lleyton Hewitt and Radek Stepanek ahead of him, and a possible meeting with Milos Raonic in the final, which could end in another loss, but here's hoping he can win it. In fact as an update (as of 07.01.13) Andy has successfully defended his title in Brisbane, having defeated Grigor Dimitrov in the final 7-6, 6-4. Also Novak Djokovic was in action at the Hopman cup, the team event featuring 8 countries, where despite a dip, when he was beaten by Beranrd Tomic 6-4, 6-4 during the round robins, he and Ana Ivanovic did manage to secure Serbia's place in the final. However Serbia was defeated by Spain in the final, in the crucial doubles match, but despite that I'm sure Novak will be more than ready for Melbourne when it starts next week.
And that is it for now. More to follow later, in the meantime have a good new year!
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