Sunday 5 January 2014

2014 Australian Open preview men's pick

OK so I've had a look at the ladies, now let's have a look at my pick of the bunch for the men's contenders for the 2014 Australian open to win or go deep into the event...

Novak Djokovic



Right for starters I have to put Novak Djokovic at the top of the tree as his record in Melbourne speaks for itself over the last three years, as he has won the title there four times now, it would be impossible to see him as anything but the favourite to win.  Nole also has come into 2014 on an unbeaten 22 match winning streak from the ATP world tour finals in London and given that form it will be incredibly hard for anyone to stop him.  But this is a new year and the slams are all about fitness and I'm sure there will be stern tests ahead of Nole in Melbourne this year, just like Stanlisas Wawrinka did last year in that amazing 4th round match they had.  But over the last couple of years Novak has proven himself to be a real fitness freak and we only have to look at the combined length of eleven hours played over the space of two days when he triumphed over Andy Murray in the semis and Rafa in the final, which was a superhuman effort in itself.  The only players that could potentially stop Nole are Andy Murray if he comes up against the British No.1 in top form, however given that Andy has just come back from injury I think its doubtful Andy could possibly beat him.  And then there is Rafa who has always been Novak's main rival in his career as the two of them have met more times than any two players have met in the history of the game (a record 39 meetings!).  And Rafa has proven over the last year that he has really upped his game on hard courts and at this tournament there is no doubt he will pose as Nole's biggest danger.  But despite all that I still see Novak edging Rafa in this contest and given his incredible self belief and how comfortable he is on the Rod Laver arena court, however it will be real tight if they meet and it will be decided by just a point here or there.  But whichever way it goes, it will be a real close call.  Prediction: champion or possible finalist.

Rafael Nadal 



Next up has to be Rafa as since his amazing comeback to the tour last year, he has won 11 titles (having triumphed already this year in Doha, which is number 11), 2 grand slams and has regained the world no.1 ranking, and five of those titles alone have been on hard courts.  This shows for sure that Rafa has definitely upped his game on hard court as prior to Indian Wells last year, Rafa hadn't even won a title on hard court for three years!  And I can almost see Rafa even upsetting his nemesis and rival Novak Djokovic this year at the Australian open given his record last year of having won over 20 matches on hard court in a row.  But where Rafa might fall down is when he plays into Nole's into-out forehand, which really remains the one shot that can hurt Rafa, and also Nole's tremendous comfort to play his best on the Rod Laver arena court.  However what I can predict with a fair degree of confidence is that it will be these two in the final and it would hard to imagine anyone else other than them reaching the final this year in Melbourne and whatever happens its going to be mighty exciting, but Rafa might just come off second best, but we'll see.  Prediction: finalist or possible champion.

Andy Murray



After these two I will pick Andy Murray who has just made his comeback after having undergone surgery to correct a lower back problem.  With Andy having made his breakthrough at the US Open in 2012 and having gone on to become the first British player to win the singles title at Wimbleon in 77 years in 2013, Andy knows how to win a major.  Not only that he has also been the finalist in Melbourne three times and he too is very comfortable playing on the Rod Laver arena court and he had his chances last year in the final against Novak but came up short as his movement was hampered by blisters on his feet and his level dropped in the 3rd set.  But the main problem for Andy is that he has just made his comeback and I think it will take a few months before he is back to his best form and for that alone I don't see him winning the title this year.  And given that he also suffered an early defeat in Doha at the beginning the of this season to Florian Mayer it shows that he still has a lot of work to do physically before he get himself up to full fitness as his movement was just a half step slow in that match.  But despite that I still think that Andy can make a decent inroads at this tournament and I can possibly see him reach the second week although it will purely depend on his fitness and form as there is always a danger of an early exit, but let's hope not and hopefully that won't happen.  So I don't think Andy will win the title but I think he can still go deep fitness permitting.  Prediction: quarters or semis.

Roger Federer



I put Roger at the bottom of the big four simply because given the poor run of form he had shown in 2013 I think it will be very tough for him to step it up and win another title again in Melbounre.  And at the age of 32, Roger is getting that bit older and his results in the grand slams last year haven't been too kind to him, with a 2nd round exit at Wimbledon and a 4th round exit at Wimbledon.  However Roger has had a decent start to 2014 so far as he has already reached the final of the Brisbane International where he lost to Lleyton Hewitt in a close final.  But therein lies the problem for Roger as at the tournament he was pushed hard by the likes of Jeremy Chardy, the french player who even in the last year or two Roger would have defeated with ease, and you would also even expect Roger to triumph over Hewitt in the final.  But again it boils down to Roger's fitness and his game just isn't as sharp as it once was and now he is far more vulnerable to being beaten by lower ranked players as he was defeated by several times last year.  So for me I don't think Roger will win the title this year in Melbourne but he still has the chance to go deep and his results in Brisbane have been encouraging so we will see what happens.  Prediction: quarter finals or semis.

David Ferrer



Next up would be David Ferrer, the Spanish terrier or the wall as he is also known as, who is one of the best returners in the game and Ferrer is one of the ultimate warriors on the tour just now and his fitness and speed make him a very dangerous opponent.  But Ferrer it has to be said has no big weapons in his game and he has to rely more on pushing his opponents around the court and keeping them on the move and making them play long rallies.  And when it comes to the big four, he more times than not usually comes up short against them.  However that's not to say that Ferrer doesn't stand any chance of winning a major one day, but let's face the fact he won't win the title in Melbounre.  But despite that though I still think Ferrer has a good chance to go deep here and he reached the semi finals last year in Melbourne and in all fairness I think he has a good chance to do so again this year.  Prediction: quarter or semi finals.

Juan Martin Del Potro



After Ferrer would be Juan Martin Del Potro, the gentle giant from Argentina, aka the tower of Tandil.  Delpo knows how to win a major as well as he is the only other player to have won a major  other than the big four since Marat Safin back in 2005 (also in Melbourne!).  Del Potro given his size also moves really well and he has a decent net game, not to mention that monster first serve and a brutal forehand, which can whip up winners as fast 120 mph.  So physically Delpo remains an intimidating figure and against most players he also poses a literal big threat.  However Del Potro hasn't made it past the quarter finals at the Australian Open and should he come up against either Rafa or Nole there is a fair chance that he will come up short.  Despite that though I can still see Delpo go deep into the tournament and just maybe he has a good chance as any.  Prediction: quarter or semi finals.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

 

And my next pick of the bunch would have to be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who was a former finalist at the Australian Open back in 2008 where he lost to Novak Djokovic.  Tsonga has proven on his day he can beat just about anyone and he also possesses some big weapons such as a huge first serve, sharp net game and also a powerful forehand.  Where Tsonga falls down however is his lack of consistency and he also isn't the toughest of opponents mentally speaking as at times he can be quite flaky during matches where he can go off the boil, which often has proved costly.  But Tsonga still has a good record in Melbourne and he managed to reach the quarter finals last year where he was beaten by Federer in very close five set match.  And while Tsonga does have some chance I don't see him winning the title unless he plays very solidly and consistently throughout the tournament, which is a big ask for any player.  But I'm despite that Tsonga still has an opportunity to get to the business end of the tournament.  Prediction: quarter finals.

Stanislas Wawrinka



And last but not least by any means is Stan Wawrinka, who made a real name for himself last year at Melbourne as he played a spectacular match against Novak Djokovic in the 4th round, where he finally fell to the Serb after five hours losing 10-12 in the 5th set.  Stan went on to have the best year of his career where he reached a Masters final in Madrid and won a title in Portugal against David Ferrer and most importantly reached the semi finals of the US Open and ATP world tour finals.  So given Stan's current form I think its safe to say he will have another very good tournament this year in Melbourne and has even reached the quarter finals at this event before as well, which he did three years ago when he was beaten by Federer.  Stan however while he possesses a powerful serve and probably the best single handed backhand in the game, he still doesn't quite have the edge to take down the big guys in the game, he can certainly challenge them but when it comes to beating the likes of Nole and Rafa it will remain a struggle for him.  Regardless of that though Stan has already made a good start to this year having won his fifth career title in Chennai and I'm sure he will live up to his top 10 ranking and reach the second week of the tournament.  Predictions: quarter finals. 
 
Right so that's it for my look at my pick of the men's for the Australian Open.  Next up I will start my coverage once the tournament get's underway as it begins a week tonight, so cannot wait for that.

Till then bye for now.     

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