1. Novak Djokovic
Well there is no getting past it that Novak is the world's best player, he has already won the Australian open four times and although he lost out last year to eventual champion Stan Wawrinka, he is a surefire favourite every time to lift another title down under and that's why he is right at the top. There is some room for uncertainty however with Nole as he did show signs of rustiness in Doha where he suffered an upset defeat by the giant serving giant, Ivo Karlovic in three sets. However I'm certain that Nole will use the time in between his shock defeat to iron out the creases in his game and he will find his top form when he get's to Melbourne and in the past we have seen Novak play some of his very best tennis there, which is no wonder how he has won the title there already so many times. There were also some question marks raised over Novak now being a new dad with his wife Jelena having given birth to their first child last year, which might have affected the sharpness of his game, but so far despite one defeat, he has far from shown anything to worry about and he will be a sharp as ever come a week today. Will he win it??? Its a relatively safe bet, but given the upset he suffered last year at the hands of Stan Wawrinka and also the surprise defeat to Kei Nishikori at the US Open last year also, it sees some new faces step into the light to threaten the World No.1. But if anyone could win it, its this man and he's got a better chance than most. Prediction: champion or finalist or even semi-finalist.
2. Roger Federer
Next is Roger Federer who over the last 12 months has rediscovered his top form ever since hiring Stefan Edberg, the former Wimbledon champion, he has sharpened his net game and his serve and become once more the formidable opponent he has been for most of his career. And to top it off he also made a bit of history in becoming only the 3rd man in the history of he sport to win 1000 matches after he clinched the title in the final of the Brisbane International against Milos Raonic to cap off his first four figured win. Roger time and time again he can beat just about any record and he is going for his record 18th grand slam title in Melbourne next week and given his form he sure is a top contender for the trophy. Like Nole however, Roger does have some threatening opponents lulling around such as Kei Nishikori not to mention Milos Raonic, who really gave Roger something to think about in their Brisbane final. Roger also has to contend with the usual suspects such as Nole and Rafa, although Rafa is pretty rusty in form just now due to his lack of matches having just come back from his apendectomy, so is Roger wants to secure his first grand slam win over Rafa in nearly 8 years, this would be the time to do it. But before that Roger will potentially face a rematch of last year's quarter final with Andy Murray. Given Andy had just returned from surgery last year, Roger in his rejuvenated form was the favourite to win, but this year its a bit trickier to see Roger as the outright winner as Andy has shown great promise already in his pre-slam warm up events and he is now back to full fitness. But Roger last year showed by reaching the Wimbledon final that he still has at least one more grand slam in him somewhere and it wouldn't at all surprise me if he were to lift his first major silverware in almost three years down under. Prediction: semi finals, finalist or champion.
3. Andy Murray
OK at Number 3 I thought I would be a bit bold and put Andy Murray in there. Why? Well so far in 2015 he has gotten his pre-season warm up off to a great start as he won the exhbition title (albeit by default and there is Andy holding the trophy in the pic) in Abu Dhabi and then went on to win all three of his singles matches at the Hopman cup last week, despite him and his team partner losing out in reaching the final there. But having said that Andy is yet to lose a singles match this year in 2015 and this could be a very good omen for him at the Australian open. OK in the grand scheme of things winning matches in exhibition events doesn't count the same as winning tour matches and certainly not in the majors. But this year something appears to be a bit different about Andy Murray as he appears to be more relaxed and confident again out on the court and we are starting to see signs of the Andy Murray during his Ivan Lendl era emerge again. Not only that Andy has been a three time finalist down under in Melbourne so he has a pretty decent chance of eventually cracking his nut in Oz and given the right frame of mind and great form he might just do it this year. The only problem for Andy is of course his serve and it appears to be the one aspect of his game that has gone on unaddressed, with Andy roughly serving a woeful 50 percent first serves in on average, its simply not good enough against the top players, and his 2nd serve speed of roughly 75-80mph leaves him wide open to be attacked by his opponents. But if Andy were to iron that out and improve his serve it would make him as good a player as Novak Djokovic is just now and the two of them would be ruling the roost together. But such as it is Andy has still got alot of work to do in that department. However I still think Andy has got a very good chance of doing well down under and whilst I don't see him as an outright favourite to win I do think he can go deep into the 2nd week. The problem for Andy now is (updated 18.01) that he has been handed much the same draw as last year as he now will potentially face Roger Federer in the quarter finals again this year and a possible showdown with Rafa in the semis. Given Rafa's lack of matchplay I can't quite see him go too deep in Melbourne but I could be wrong, but Roger is a different proposition altogether and he just happened to hand Andy in their last meeting the heaviest defeat of his career. But Andy is a different animal this year so far as he has shown good signs already in Abu Dhabi and Perth and he is also much fitter and stronger than he was last year, so if he will meet Roger I'm sure he will be intent on getting revenge for such a brutal loss last year at the o2 in London. But having said that given Andy's tough draw and not to mention a possible 4th round clash with Dimitrov, its hard to predict just how far Andy can go this year down under, but I think at the very least we can expect to see him in the last eight or if he plays his cards right even last four or the final. And if he can battle past Fed then he'll give himself a good shout for the title. Prediction: quarter finals, semi-finals or finalist.
4. Kei Nishikori
Next up is Kei Nishikori, last year's surprise US Open finalist, who stunned Nole enroute to the final in New York last year before being beaten himself by Marin Cilic. Over the last 12 months, Nishikori really has proven himself to be a force to be reckoned with in the men's game and he has really stepped up to the plate and beaten three of the big four (except Rafa, who he could have done in Miami) in 2014 alone. Last year in Melbourne Kei also did well in reaching the 4th round at the Australian open where he pushed Rafa quite hard over three tough fought sets, which showed he is a player to watch out for. The only problem for Kei possibly lies in the fact that he doesn't have any big weapons in his game, as his serve lacks penetration and he has to rely more on his speed and court coverage to produce the points. Kei is also in that position of never having won a major and the nerves sooner or later may kick in for him should he reach the final, he has also struggled off and on with injuries last year also, so that could also potentially derail his title bid down under should they resurface. However Kei is still a strong contender to win the title and he sure has the talent, the game and the growing belief that he can win a major and if so he will make his own bit of history in becoming the first Japanese man to win a grand slam singles title and it might just happen this year, but it might not just happen yet in Melbourne, but reaching the final four is a decent bet. Prediction: semi finals.
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
After Kei we have the defending champion, Stanislas Wawrinka, whom pulled off a wonderful feat last year of stunning both the then current champion, Novak Djokovic and also Rafael Nadal in the final. Stan went on to have mixed fortunes in 2014 as after he won his first major in Melbourne, he also went on to win his first 1000 Masters series title in Monte Carlo, but after that his year took a dip and he suffered a first round exit at the French open, although faired better at Wimbledon and the US Open where he reached the quarter finals and finished it off in style by reaching the semi finals of the ATP world tour finals. But who is to say that Stan might not recover that great form that won him the title last year as there is no doubt that this will be his favourite grand slam after last year. Stan also has the power and the game to blow any player off the court as he has a powerful serve and just also happens to have the best single handed backhand in the game. However despite being a major champion already, Stan still lacks the mental edge needed to keep on winning the big events, as he has folded in several matches last year and somewhere along the way the same thing could happen to him this year in Melbourne. So will Stan defend his title??? Well to be honest I would have to say no because I think he will struggle with the expecation and the pressure of having to defend his title as the tournament progresses, but I do think he can still go quite deep into the event and he should at least reach the last eight or four before losing out to his successor. However I could be wrong and Stan could go on and defend his title, and he already has defended his title in Chennai last week, so maybe that could be a good omen for him for Melbourne, but we'll see. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
6. David Ferrer
After Stan we have David Ferrer who has made a good start to his 2015 as he fought his way into the final of the Qatar Exxon Mobile open last week and beat Tomas Berdych comfortably in straight sets to claim his 22nd career title. Ferrer had his struggles in 2014 however, which left him with a couple of early exits in the slams at Wimbledon and the US Open and he also lost out in a few finals, one of which was the Vienna open in which he was serving for the title in the 3rd set before Andy Murray fought back and claimed it himself. But it is a new year and I'm sure Ferrer will be refreshed after his break (and has also started a new coaching partnership having split from his former coach of 15 years, Javier Piles) and his title in Doha is a great start and sees him getting back on the right track just before Melbourne starts. Ferrer is also a former semi finalist at the Australian open so the chances of him going deep down under are pretty good. Can he win the title there? Unfortunately I don't think so as he has time and time again come up short against the big four in the majors and he is sure to bump into at least one of them enroute to a possible final (also with one of them!). Regardless of that though, Ferrer is still one of the world's best players (and one of my favourites aswell!) and he has been at the top of the game for a long time and with good reason and if he will fall down under, he will go down fighting, and I think he could definitely reach the last eight or maybe four. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
7. Milos Raonic
Then we get to Milos Raonic who has gotten his year off to a good start as he reached the final of the Brisbane International, where he gave Roger Federer a stern test in the final before falling in three sets to the Swiss. Raonic also has proven over the last 12 months alone that he is rapidly improving as a player and he is now starting to add one or two extra shots to what has to be one of the game's best serves, as he is now a comptent returner and a decent volleyer. Raonic also made his breakthrough last year in reaching his first major quarter final at the French open last year and he went one better at Wimbledon where he reached the semi finals there before losing out to Roger Federer, so Milos is starting to learn a thing or two about going deep into the majors. However I don't see Raonic as the eventual champion down under as his game does lack that extra dimension required to take down the guys right at the top, which he would need to work on in order to do that. So while I think Raonic can reach the 2nd week I don't quite see him progressing further than maybe the last eight, depending on who he faces enroute. Prediction: quarter finals.
8. Grigor Dimitrov
Then we have another young gun, Grigor Dimitrov, who is surprisingly quite far down the list the time although you might ask why??? Well that's a good question as Dimi has been in very good form over the last 12 months and he has racked up some good victories, especially as he claimed his first win over Andy Murray in Acapulco enroute to winning the title there, his first ATP 500 tour title and he went on to win the title at Queens club and then toppled Andy Murray out of Wimbledon to reach the last four there. The problem is since then something is missing from Dimitrov's game that will make him appear to be the big threat that he can be as he appears to have lost a bit of that edge towards the end of last year. However it is the start of a new year and no doubt Dimitrov will be hugely motivated to do well in Melbourne and he did reach his first grand slam quarter final last year in Oz where he gave Rafa a stern battle before losing in four sets. So for me Grigor remains a bit of a question mark this time round, he sure has the game and all the aspects to win a mjor, but he could well do it this year, but I'm not certain if Melbourne is the one he will do it at. But I think Dimitrov should do pretty well and maybe reach the last eight again. Prediction: quarter finals.
9. Rafael Nadal
OK just why is Rafa this far down the list?????? Well there are one or two reasons, the main one is because he is not long back from surgery after recovering from appendcitis, which has left him without much match practice and as such he is looking pretty rusty. So if you put Rafa out on a tennis court in rusty form against some top players he could very well become the victim of a big upset and so far in 2015 he has been beaten by an in form Andy Murray and also in his first ATP tour match in Doha by a German player, Michael Berrer ranked inside the top 200. So to say at this stage that Rafa might be a favourite to win the title is a bit of mute point as I think its safe to say he would have to seriously step up his form several gears over the next few weeks if he is to stand any chance of winning the title down under. However that's not to say that Rafa won't give his all, as he always does in victory or defeat and the grand slams certainly bring out the best in him so there is no doubt his motivation will be very high. So whilst I don't see Rafa as a favourite to win the title he is still one to watch out for and just maybe he could surprise us all, and I think he might just make the 2nd week maybe in the last 16 or 8 if not further. Prediction: 4th round, quarter finals.
10. Tomas Berdych
OK right at the bottom of the list although in a way I'm not quite sure how, is Tomas Berdych, who last year had a real shot at reaching the final in Melbourne as he took on Stan Wawrinka, but ended up losing to him in four tight sets. Berdych however sure has the firepower to knock out any player's lights on the tour as he has powerful groundstrokes and a potent big serve. But Berdych unfortunately as he has often proved in big matches, lacks the mental edge to make the final push necessary to win the big events. And he proved this again last week in Doha as he played brilliantly to reach the final but he came undone against an in form David Ferrer and in the match he had his chances to push it to a 3rd set but he couldn't take them and in the big events players need to take their chances. Berdych however has made an interesting change of coach as he has taken on Dani Vallverdu, Andy Murray's former assistant coach, who was a real asset to Andy during their time, as Dani would regularly be seen scouting matches and making notes on future opponents for Andy, and no doubt Dani will do the same for Berdych. Tomas however is yet to achieve what Andy has in his career and the fact that he has lost more finals than he has won (15 lost to 10 won) doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence in Tomas lifting his first major in Melbourne. But he is a top player and I think he will reach the 2nd week and a place in the last 16 or 8 is a safe bet. Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
Rrrrrrrrright so that's it for my exhaustive look at the contenders for the Australian open title and I will be back on this blog once the action in Melbourne get's under way.
Until then bye for now!
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