Thursday 8 September 2016

2016 US Open update - Men's Part 1

OK, so now its time to move onto my look at the men's event so far at the 2016 US Open, the final grand slam of the season.  So without further ados let's take a look what happened so far....

1st WEEK SEEDS OUT

Right so to kick off in the 1st week we had plenty of seeds tumble out early and to start there was Richard Gasquet who was tunned by the British player, Kyle Edmund who put in a great performance to beat Gasquet in straight sets.  David Goffin also suffered defeat at the first hurdle as he went out to the American player, Jared Donaldson in four sets.  Bernard Tomic went out in the 1st round too as he was beaten by Damir Dzumhur in four sets in a heated match that saw Tomic get angry with a fan saying something along the lines of "I'll stuff these balls down your throat!".  Lovely!

As for the 2nd round losses we had a big casualty in the shape of Milos Raonic who despite his good form in the slams so far this season, suffered a 2nd round exit at the hands of the American, Ryan Harrison who beat Raonic in four sets.  Feliciano Lopez also found himself on the losing end in the 2nd round as he got put out by Joao Sousa of Portugal in a four set match.  Alexander Zverev, who has been tipped for big things in the future, lost to the British No.2, Dan Evans in a surprising four set defeat.  Gilles Simon next was also a sufferer of the 2nd round defeat as he went down to Paolo Lorenzi in an epic five set match.  And Steve Johnson also was beaten in the 2nd round by a resurgent Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets.

As for the 3rd round losses we had David Ferrer who was also beaten by the big Argentine, Del Potro in straight sets.  Marin Cilic, the former US Open champion who had also recently won in Cincinnati, suffered a surprising defeat at the hands of the American, Jack Sock in straight sets.  Nick Kyrgios also had his misfortunes at this stage when he was forced to retire from his match with Ilya Marchenko in the fourth set having went two sets to one down.  And lastly John Isner was stunned by the in form British player, Kyle Edmund in their 3rd round clash which saw Edmund dispatch Isner in four sets.

2ND WEEK MATCHES LAST 16 AND QUARTER FINALS 

Right so now onto the 4th round matches (or i.e. the last 16) and quarter final matches which saw the World No.1, Novak Djokovic take on Kyle Edmund.  And Novak proved to be simply too strong for Kyle as he dominated the young Brit in a straight sets win 6-2, 6-1, 6-4.  Novak would then go on to face Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in the quarter finals, however Tsonga was forced to retire at the start of the 3rd set from a knee injury as Novak was two sets to love up.  This had seen Novak get through to the last four having had two opponents, Tsonga and Mikhail Youzhny both retire during the matches and Jiri Vesily withdrawing before his 2nd round match with Novak was due to be played.  This now means that Novak has only played two whole matches going into the semi finals, which will see him well rested but I will say more about that situation later.

As for the other matches, Gael Monfils who has shown great form so far in this tournament, he effortlessly beat Marcos Baghdatis in straight sets in the 4th round to reach the last eight in 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.  And Monfils would then go on to beat his fellow countryman, Lucas Pouille in another straight sets win this time winning 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 to reach his first US Open semi final.  This has now seen Monfils reach the semi finals of the US Open without dropping a single set, which is very impressive in itself and it shows the Frenchman hasn't just got flash but plenty of substance aswell.

Next was Stan Wawrinka who so far has had a bit of an up and down tournament and he was pushed to the limit in his 3rd round match where he took on Dan Evans in an incredible five set match in which Stan had to save a match point in the 4th set tiebreak before going on to dominate the 5th.  However in the 4th round, Stan mostly had things under control against Ilya Marchenko and he only suffered a couple of dips when he dropped the 3rd set on a tiebreak and had to wrestle back a break of serve in the 4th but he finished strong to beat Marchenko in four sets.  And in the quarter finals, Stan took on Juan Martin Del Potro once again this year and this time he got his revenge for their Wimbledon match as Stan beat big Delpo and halted his comeback in four sets, which left a very emotional Del Potro who had won over the crowd with his efforts despite losing the match.

And last of all we have Kei Nishikori who has been in good form so far in the tournament and he went into the last 16 to face Ivo Karlovic and he proved to be too good for the giant Croatian as he beat him in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6.

And...after this Kei went on to face Andy Murray who up to that point had an up and down tournament but despite that Andy went into the match as the heavy favourite having dominated their head to head 7-1. 

And it looked to be more of the same for Kei as Andy bossed him from the baseline and mercilessly broke Kei three times to claim the first set.  In the 2nd set however the tide turned as the match had to be stopped for a rain delay and they eventually closed the roof and from here, Kei became a different player and went on to break Andy and level the match at a set all.  In the 3rd set, Andy managed though to regain his momentum as he broke Kei to grab the 3rd set and the two sets to one lead.  And in the 4th, Andy early on had the momentum as he had a break point on Kei's serve but their play was interrupted by a loud gong sound (which later was found out to be the stadium's speaker system having a malfunction).  And this noise distracted Andy for the remainder of the set, which let Kei take advantage and break his opponent twice to level the match at two sets all. 

And the final set was a nailbiter, which saw momentum swing back and forth between the two players but in the end it was Kei that made the decisive break as he finally managed to break Andy to go 6-5 and he served out the match to end Andy's hopes of winning a 2nd US Open title with a remarkable 1-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 victory.

And I can't forget to finish off by going back and mentioning the last 4th round match, which was between Lucas Pouille and Rafael Nadal, the former two time champion.  The match itself was a thrilling contest that was undoubtedly one of the best matches of the tournament.  Pouille made the stronger start winning the first but Rafa went on to claim the 2nd and Pouille nabbed the 3rd and Rafa levelled with the 4th.  And in the 5th set we were treated to a nailbiting finale, which saw the match finally go into a deciding tiebreak that saw Pouille pull off a stunning upset and beat Rafa to win in five sets and clinch a stunning 6-1, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 win.

SO WHAT NOW FOR RAFA AND ANDY???

Well what indeed.  Starting with Rafa, well to his credit he did have a pretty decent US Open run this time around although he only managed to go one stage further than he did last year (the 3rd round where he lost to Fabio Fognini).  Rafa however has shown that he has still some way to go when it comes to beating the upcoming stars such as Pouille and maybe also players like Thiem, Raonic and Kyrgios who are all young guns who have the game to beat Rafa.  And from here its difficult to see Rafa relcaim his glory days, he has overall done not too badly this year so far as he has won two clay court titles and the Olympic gold medal in the men's doubles.  But if he wants to compete at the very top level then he is still has alot of work to do ahead of him and its probably just leaving things a bit late now at this time in his career.

Then there is the concerns over Rafa's wrist injury, which had plagued since his withdrawal at the French Open.  However the positive thing is that throughout the US Open, Rafa looked to be playing pain free and also he competed very well at the Olympics, so the signs are at least looking a bit more encouraging Rafa in regards to his fitness.  But where he goes from here is just something we will need to wait and see and he has also said he is keen to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals in London at the end of the year so we will have to see how that pans out.

So now onto Andy and well, it has to be said that his quarter final exit to Kei Nishikori was undoubtedly something of a surprise as it was a match where he definitely appeared to have the momentum at certain stages but in the end he just lost his way and Kei played more aggressively at the key points.  So this will be a tough loss for Andy to dwell on but the good news is at least he will a bit more time to recover before he goes into the Davis cup semi final in Glasgow where Great Britain will take on Argentina.

One thing however that will hurt Andy as a result of this loss to Nishikori is his chances of closing the gap between himself and Novak for the No.1 spot as it will see him no further forward than he was at the start of the tournament and with Novak still have a very sizeable advantage in points over Andy.  And this will see Andy have to make up a great deal of ground in the upcoming tournaments if he is to grab that No.1 spot.   

But the concern I have regarding Andy's ambitions for the top spot boils down to one crucial factor, and that is his serve as his serve has always been a liability and at the US Open he struggled badly on his serve with most of matches hovering around the 50% first serves in mark.  And it has to be said if Andy wants to overtake Novak in the rankings then 50% first serves in is simply nowhere near good enough and he would need to become more consistent on his own serve and until he does, his chances of reaching the summit of the game looks doubtful.

But regardless of these concerns, Andy has done exceptionally well over the summer having claimed three titles on the trot at Queens, Wimbledon and the Rio Olympics and put together a career best 22 match winning streak, which is something worthy of even Novak's standards.  And its quite certain that Andy would have been feeling the effects of fatigue after having played so many matches over the last three months that it was bound to take its toll sometime.  And despite all that, Andy has still got it all to play for as the 2016 season nears its end, he might not make to No.1 in the world by the end of it but it'll fun to see if he can get closer to that spot.

SEMI FINAL PREDICTIONS

Right!  So now onto the men's semi final predictions and my thoughts on them....

Stan Wawrinka vs Kei Nishikori 

This is a hard match to predict given that their head to head is pretty close as Stan leads Kei 3-2 but it was Kei that won their last match in Canada and before Stan beat Kei at the Australian open last year so they have split their last two meetings. 

The one decisive factor here however could come down to Kei's fitness as he had the longer match of the two players as it took Kei nearly four hours to put away Andy Murray in five sets, whereas Stan had a more comfortable four set win so this could help make a bit of difference.  Another factor however that could be in Kei's favour though is that he won their previous encounter at the US Open, which was an epic encounter that went to five sets and its possible that Kei could repeat the feat here again. 

So as for my prediction....well I have to side with Kei here as I think he already has had the advantage of having beaten Stan at the US Open two years and I think it will help him again this time around.  Stan for sure is the more experienced player when its comes to playing in grand slam finals, having won two of them already and Kei has yet to win one himself.  But I just think if it comes down to dogged athletism and raw speed then Kei might just hold the edge and I think he should come through this one in five sets.  So my scoreline prediction (for what little its worth!) is:

Nishikori d. Wawrinka 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.  

Novak Djokovic vs Gael Monfils

OK now this one is potentially much easier to predict as Novak simply owns Monfils in their head to head as he has never lost to the Frenchman, so Novak instantly starts off as the hot favourite to win this match. 

However Novak still hasn't been fully tested at all in this tournament and that has simply come down to the fact that he as only played two full matches going into the last four, having benefited from a withdrawal and two retirals.  Now whether or not this will benefit Novak fully or not remains to be seen as on the plus side he will be alot fresher going into this match but on the other hand, due to the walkovers he's had has left him without much in the way of proper matchplay that could impact on his game.  And not only that, Monfils has been pretty efficient in his own matches as he has managed to reach the semi finals without even dropping a set, so he too should be feeling fairly fresh and fit.

But no matter how fit and fresh Monfils might be feeling its hard to bet against Novak on this one as having only played two full matches he will be feeling pretty fresh and good having had ample recovery time for his shoulder that was troubling him earlier in the tournament.  And its impossible to not also look at the facts that Novak has never lost to Monfils and even though there is a first time for everything, I don't necessarily see that time being in New York.

So my final prediction will be that Novak comes through this match in four sets to reach another US Open final and my scoreline prediction (again for what its worth!) is:

Djokovic d. Monfils 6-4, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4.

Right!  So that's its for now and I will be back soon once the mens and ladies semi final matches are over.

So till then its bye for now!


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