OK, so its nearly that time in the new year that the first grand slam season get's under way in Melbourne: the Australian open. So how will go this year?? Who is the favourite to win?? And who are the other contenders???? Well let's take a look....
1. Novak Djokovic
At the top spot is of course the six time champion, Novak Djokovic, who had a mixed season last year in 2016 having completed his career slam at the French Open, Novak looked untouchable and ready to do a full sweep at the majors that year. However the second half of 2016 wasn't what Novak, or anyone else for that matter had expected as he lost his form and concentration and he suffered a string of surprising loses and by the end of the year he lost his No.1 ranking to Andy Murrray.
However at the start of this year, Novak made it to his 2nd final in Doha and he took on the new World No.1 in Andy Murray and he beat his old rival in three sets. And because of that reason alone I would put Novak at the top of this list as its a victory that will give him a much needed boost going into the first major of the season. But its not only the first, its also Novak's most successful, having won six times, its impossible to look past that and NOT see him as the favourite.
So will he win it this year?? I think its a fairly strong possibility given his start to 2017 so far but time will tell if he can keep that good start going, heading into Melbourne. But personally I think he should definitely reach the final and if he does that record breaking 7th title might be round the corner.
Prediction: champion or finalist.
2. Andy Murray
At No.2 on the list is the current World No.1, Andy Murray, who had a stellar season last year, especially in the 2nd half where Andy was nearly untouchable and put together two remarkable winning streaks of 22 matches and then finishing the year unbeaten on a 24 matches. And 2016 was a year that saw Andy claim a 2nd Wimbledon title and Olympic gold medal along with finishing the year as the No.1 player in the world, it was the cherry on top.
However Andy has found himself getting off to a slightly sluggish start this year as he lost to David Goffin in an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi and then he went on to lose to Novak Djokovic in the final of Doha. However, Andy shouldn't be too concerned going into Australia given that he put a strong performance against Novak before he lost out in three tight sets.
The main problem really for Andy though is how he will cope with Novak down under should they meet in the final as he has been on the losing end of the Serb four times now and its a real possibility that it could be a fifth. But given how close their match was in Doha it should be a real battle if the two of them do meet in the final.
Another issue for Andy is also how he will cope with the pressure of being the new World No.1 as in order for him to remain at the top spot he will need to reach the semi finals or better in Melbourne, otherwise Novak will dethrone him and take back the No.1 spot for himself.
However, no matter what might transpire, I can still see Andy reach the final this year and given that its his sixth final, just like it was with Vinny Gambini in the film "My Cousin Vinny" six times just might be the charm. So while given that his nemesis, Nole, might be his opponent he might come off second best yet again, there's still a chance that Andy could for once come out on top.
Prediction: champion or finalist.
3. Milos Raonic
At the No.3 spot is the big serving Canadian, Milos Raonic, who reached the semi finals last year but lost out to the finalist, Andy Murray in five sets. Raonic's game has come on in leaps and bounds over the last year or so and under the part time coaching on John McEnroe, it certainly has helped improve his mentality in the big matches.
The main problem for Milos is however that he still hasn't quite got the physical edge over the elite guys ahead of him in Andy and Nole and when it comes to defence and movement he still lags behind them in both respects. So Milos will need to hope for a good draw and hope he can also conserve energy going into the latter stages.
So do I see Milos as the champion of the Aussie Open??? In all honesty, no. However I do think that Raonic can go pretty deep and a run into the last four is a relatively safe bet.
Prediction: Semi finals.
4. Kei Nishikori
Next is Kei Nishikori, who had a strong season last year, having reached the semis at the US Open and also winning a bronze medal at the Olympics in Rio. Kei also managed to Masters series finals in Miami and also later in Toronto where he finished as a runner-up, which showed that he was able to maintain his consistency as a top player.
However the problem for Kei is in trying to break that stranglehold at the top of the men's game with Novak and Andy ahead of him (along with Raonic and Stan Wawrinka who are 3rd and 4th seeds at the Aussie open). Kei also lacks the big weapons necessary to really threaten these guys as well on a consistent level as Kei has often come up short against them on that basis alone and that could also hinder his chances in Melbourne.
But that, for me, won't really stop Kei from having a strong run this year in Melbourne (well at least I think anyway!) and I think its also a reasonable that Kei could reach the last eight or four before he is done down under.
Prediction: Quarter finals or semi finals.
5. Stan Wawrinka
Up next is Stan Wawrinka, who had a very mixed season last year where he won the US Open, his 3rd major title against Novak Djokovic in the final, which now sees him only need to claim Wimbledon this year and he will have the full set, which would be pretty damn good going for a man who believes he will never get to No.1!
However belief is indeed Stan's main problem because he is either unplayable or deeply lacklustre when it comes to tournaments and you never know, which Stan you will get from one tournament to the next. So consistency is a big problem for the World No.4.
Having said that however, Stan has already won the Australian open three years ago and he did dethrone the then (and now current) champion in Novak Djokovic in order to do so, so to write off his chances this year would be very silly indeed, especially given he has won a major each year since 2014.
But right now unless Stan can quietly work his way through his draw (and believe me he can do it!) and grow with confidence, then its really tough to assess his chances and call him the outright champ of the event. Can he do it??? Of course but Stan's inconsistency is his main downfall, so we will just need to wait and see how his time down under develops. So for Stan, I will have to say even though he is in 5th place here, he can still win this tournament again and for that reason I think reaching the either the last eight, four or the final is a distinct possibility.
Prediction: Quarters, semis, final or champion.
6. Rafael Nadal
At No.6 is Rafa, who so far has shown some promise at the start of 2017 as he has already won the the exhibition event in Abu Dhabi and he also reached the quarter finals in Brisbane where he lost to Milos Raonic, the World No.3 in three sets. So Rafa so far, despite his defeat in Brisbane is looking fairly good.
But...the problem is Rafa has been out for quite a while up until the start of this year and his form against the top guys might not currently be enough for him to get the better of the likes of Andy or Novak. So Rafa will need to keep improving his form and get fitter before he can start to really compete with both of these guys. Not only that Rafa has failed to even reach past the 4th round of a major for two years now as he last did it at the French Open in 2015 when he lost his crown to Novak, so he will have to work very hard or hope he get's a kind draw down under.
However, Rafa might still surprise us all and put in a good run in Melbourne even if he isn't an outright favourite to win, I think he could possibly reach the last 16 or 8 before he loses out.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
7. Dominic Thiem
At No.7 is Dominic Thiem, who had a meteoric rise last year into the top 10 and he for sure looks like a possible future World No.1 himself.
Thiem also had a great year in 2016 which saw him win four ATP tour titles, reach a career high world ranking of No.7 and also he reached his first grand slam semi final at the French Open. Thiem also managed to qualify at the ATP World Tour Finals where he played in his first ever tournament there in London. So 2016, was a mighty good one for Thiem.
However again, Thiem probably due to his inexperience at this level, will find himself probably come up short against the very best guys out there and so I can't quite see him get to the final or certainly win the event this year. Although I do have to say I think, Thiem is definitely a future grand slam winner but now just yet.
So for me I think Thiem can still have a good tournament down under and just maybe he might reach the last 16 or 8 before going out.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals
8. David Goffin
At No.8 is David Goffin, the Belgium No.1, who is just sitting currently outside the top 10 and with good reason as he is certainly one of the most consistent of the young players out there just now. #
Goffin also had his best season last year as he reached his first major quarter final at the French Open before he lost out to the man above him in this list (i.e. Thiem) and he even managed to qualify as an alternate at the ATP World Tour Finals, where he managed to get a chance to play one match against Novak Djokovic (but he was crushed in straight sets).
The problem however for Goffin though is that he lacks the big weapons necessary to take out the elite guys and that lack of raw firepower is something that would hold him back. Goffin also tends to get a bit cagy when he plays the big points in the bigger events, so that could also seriously hold him back in Melbourne.
But having said that, Goffin might still enjoy a decent run in Melbourne that could possibly see him get to the 2nd week and just maybe a jaunt to the last 16 or 8 is a possibility.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals
9. Tomas Berdych
At 9th place is Tomas Berdych, who has been an old faithful of sorts in these lists as he has been one of the most consistent players on the tour over the last seven years or so.
Berdych also had a pretty decent year last season as he managed to reach the semi finals of Wimbledon for a 2nd time before he lost out to eventual champion, Andy Murray. Berdych also claimed his 13th career title in Shenzhen, China where it was his 2nd title there at the event.
The problem however with Berdych as we all know is that he lacks the mental edge when it comes to playing the big four guys in the game as he has often come off second best against them. Berdych also is starting to get that bit older where there are now younger players coming up over him in the rankings and that also could hinder his chances at the majors.
So again for me, Berdych won't be the champion down under this year or possibly even at a grand slam before he hangs up his racquet. But despite that, Berdych could still make a decent run that might see him make the 2nd week before he could go down in the last 16 or 8.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
10. Marin Cilic
And lastly at No.10 is the World No.6 and former semi finalist at Melbourne, Marin Cilic, who had a pretty good year in 2016 as he won his first Masters title as he defeated Andy Murray in Cincinnati and he also reached the ATP World Tour Finals before he went on to lose in the finals of the Davis cup against Argentina.
Cilic no doubt is a strong performer and he has already won a major at the US Open, so he has an edge on some of his rivals in that respect and certainly might help him this year going into Melbourne.
The main problem for me with Cilic, is that he can be a bit inconsistent in terms of his results and when he has come up against the big guys recently in the majors he has usually faltered, especially when he took on Roger Federer last year in their incredible five set match at Wimbledon, having lost a two set lead.
So for me, I can't see Cilic as the eventual champion of the tournament but I still think he could have a decent event and just maybe reach the 2nd week before he's done.
Prediction: 3rd, 4th round or quarter finals.
And a last few worthy mentions are of course:
Roger Federer - I kept him off the top 10 list simply because he is coming back from his knee injury, so it will hard to know where to place his chances at the event. Roger however could still make it into the 2nd week but I can't see him get past the last eight or four.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Tsonga is also another unpredictable player when it comes to form and he was a former finalist in Melbourne, so he could have a good run but its hard to say, however he might just make the 2nd week.
Grigor Dimitrov - Dimitrov next has enjoyed a strong start to his 2017 season as he won his first title in almost three years as he claimed the Brisbane International event against Kei Nishikori in the final. So I think Grigor looks like he could enjoy a good run in Melbourne that might also see him make the 2nd week and just maybe he could reach the last eight.
Lucas Pouille - Pouille is another up and coming player and the Frenchman has reached the last two major quarter finals at Wimbledon and US Open and who's to say he might not do the same in Melbourne? So I think its possible that the Frenchman might make an appearance in the 2nd week.
Nick Kyrgios - And last of all is of course Nasty Nick Kyrgios, who makes his return to the tour here having been suspended from play due to his controversial on court behaviour that saw him have to undergo counselling from a sports pscyhologist. So does that mean we will see a new, improved and more mature Nick in 2017??? I guess we'll find out!
Right! So that is it for my look at the contenders for this year's Australian open at the men's event. Will they come true??? Well I guess we'll find out soon enough and I will be back on here once the event get's underway.
So till then its bye for now!
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