Right, so as Wimbledon is just a week away I figured it was time to take a look at my pick at the contenders for the men's title and also those players who might make a good run at SW19. So without much further messing about, let's take a look....
1. Roger Federer
Right, so at the very top of the list this year at Wimbledon is Roger Federer, who has had a stellar 2017 so far having won four titles that include the Australian open , which was his record 18th major. Roger has also just won the Gerry Weber open grass court title in Halle, where he plays every year and despite one loss so far on the grass to Tommy Haas this season, Roger has looked unstoppable since. So, I think its safe to say that Rog should be able to transfer his Halle success with ease onto the grass courts at Wimbledon where he will look for his record 8th title.
The only thing might stop Roger however could be his fitness levels, because if he finds himself drawn into longer matches earlier on or leading up to the final, this could hamper his chances. This happened to Rog last year as he was pushed all the way in two back to back five setters against Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic before he lost out to Raonic having succumbed to the strain of his knee injury. So, Roger will need to ensure he takes care of the early rounds with great efficiency and serve to the best of his ability but let's face it, we expect that from Rog anyway!
So, for me given Roger's form and his ability to even defeat Rafa in the finals they've played so far this year, I still can't see anyone contend with him this year. So, for that reason alone I would have to go with Roger to win the title this year and that's why he get's the top spot on this list as this year's champion. Prediction: champion.
2. Rafael Nadal
At No.2 is Rafa (who is also currently the World No.2!) and Rafa has a fair bit at stake going into Wimbledon as he has a chance to overtake Andy Murray and grab the top spot once again, which should Rafa win the title and Andy goes out early on that will be a reality. Rafa has also shown that this year he is back to great form as he has had a near impeccable clay court season, winning his 10th French open title. Not only that though, Rafa also made it to the finals of the Australian open and in Miami where he lost out to Roger Federer. So, this shows that in Roger's absence, he has literally been the 2nd best player in the world (with Rog arguably being the world's best this year so far but its fairly close!).
The only problems for Rafa however is to do with his lack of good form on grass over the last five years or so as he has failed to reach the final of Wimbledon for six years now. Rafa also has spoken publicly about his struggles on grass courts due to the low bounce of the ball on the surface, it requires him to bend down lower to reach the ball, which puts more pressure on his knees, which has lead to his misfortunes at SW19.
So, it remains to be seen if Rafa can string together a good run at SW19 this year, however if he can somehow get himself into the 2nd week then he will be dangerous and there is a fair chance that will be able to reach the final. However, if its Rog in that final with Rafa this year, I have to give the firm advantage to Roger as the signs so far from the Swiss star have been very strong. So for me, I think Rafa might possibly reach the last four or even the final but I don't quite see him as the outright champion.
Prediction: semi finals or final.
3. Marin Cilic
In 3rd place is Marin Cilic, who so far has had a very solid 2017 and he reached the quarter finals at the French open and then went on to reach the final this week at Queens club before losing out to Feliciano Lopez in a thrilling final. However, despite that loss Marin has still been remarkably solid in the grand slams in recent times and he is also a US Open champion, so already knows a thing or two about winning them, so there is a fair chance he can do very well this year at the All England Club.
However the only problem with Cilic is that he does show the occassional signs of mental frailty and he has been known to blink in the clutch moments in matches that has cost him dearly in the past, especially in his epic five set defeat to Roger Federer last year where Cilic lead by two sets to love. So, Cilic needs to stay mentally tough in those moments if he is to have a chance of wining his first Wimbleon title.
But this year, I can still see Cilic make a deep run at SW19 and if he is given a favourable draw, I think there is also a chance that he could very deep and just possibly make the last four. I don't quite see him as the eventual champion but his form is more than good enough to see him do very well this year. Prediction: semi finals.
4. Andy Murray
At No.4 is the defending champion, Andy Murray, who had a stellar 2016 last season where the sports was just down to two guys, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and as Novak faltered in the 2nd half of the season, Andy took over and won his 2nd Wimbledon title and went on to claim the top spot from Nole later in the year.
However, Andy's reign at No.1 has been somewhat wretched and must rank as one of the most underwhelming and unconvincing reigns in the sport, as Andy has struggled with injury, illness and a lack of confidence in his game that has already seen him lose as many matches as he did throughout all of last year! (i.e. 9). Andy however did look to regain some form after a very good French open campaign, having reached the semi finals there, he was a tiebreak away from reaching the final before he was denied by Stan "the man" Wawrinka. But this good form again was halted after he succumbed to a shock loss at the hands of the World No.90, Jordan Thomson, who beat Andy at the Aegon championships at Queens club in straight sets. This really setback Andy's progress after his promising French open campaign and has now left him having to play a couple of exhibition matches in order to get some matchplay in on the grass before Wimbledon kicks off.
So, on the basis of this, Andy will have his work cut out in trying to successfully defend his title as he is surrounded by young, hungry, upcoming players who are all confident that they have a shot at beating him. Not only that, Andy has to contend with a resurgent Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal, who have been the two best players in the world this year in terms of their quality of tennis.
However....despite all this I still have placed Andy here at No.4 on the list because Wimbledon is a very special place for him and despite any losses he has suffered in the smaller tournaments, he will fight tooth and nail and give his all before he loses at the All England Club. And beating Andy in the best of five sets is simply a different matter altogether than beating him in the best of three where Andy is far more vulnerable but in the best of five, it gives him that bit more time to work things out.
So, I might be wrong but I think Andy will still do pretty well this year at Wimbledon and I can still see him make a decent run into the 2nd week. However, I have to be honest and say that I don't think he will win the title this year but I still do think that the chances of him going out early, while are always possible, I think at Wimbledon he will do all he can to avoid that fate. So, I think Andy will possibly reach the last eight or four before he might be shown the door, which if he does would be a decent showing. But who knows? Just maybe Andy might prove us all wrong yet.
Update: however as I type this (29.06.17) we've already heard the troubling news that Andy is suffering from a hip injury this week, so this could spell trouble for him next week and raises the possibility that he migh withdraw. However, Andy did indicate that even though he pulled out of his exhibition on Tuesday there with Lucas Pouille, he expected to play his 2nd match at the Hurlingham club on Friday and it was purely as a precautionary measure.
Further update: in fact it has been revealed today (29.06.17) that Andy has pulled out of his 2nd and final exhibition match at the Hurlingham club again due to his hip injury. So, this does not bode well at all for the current World No.1 and Andy will need to hope that his injury will abate in time for next Monday when he is due to kick off the defence of his Wimbledon title at the All England Club. Right now though its starting to look very unlikely that he will be able to play the tournament, which would almost certainly mean he will lose his No.1 ranking.
However for now we will just have to wait and see what's going to happen with Andy, who continues to be plagued with setbacks in what has turned out to be one of the most difficult and frustrating seasons of his career so far. But if history has tought us anything about Andy its he is one stubborn beggar and he will do all he can to ensure that he does play next week and have a stab at defending his title. So prediction wise I was going to say maybe quarter finals or the semis but for now it all hangs in the balance as we await Andy's decision to play. So for that I have to go with my prediction as below:
Prediction: ????????????????????????????
5. Feliciano Lopez
At No.5 is this guy, Feliciano Lopez, who is a rare animal: a Spanish player, who is also a strong grass court player and so far this season, Lopez has amassed a very impressive grass court record having lost just one match in two tournaments and Lopez went on to triumph at the Queens club having beaten Marin Cilic in the final. So, Lopez is very comfortable playing on grass and there is no doubt that his achievement of winning the Queens final is very impressive and is the perfect preparation for Wimbledon.
However...the problem for me with Lopez is that if you put him up against one of the elite guys such as Federer, Murray or even Rafa then he is still sure to be come up second best against them and Lopez's progress will really depend on how kind the draw is to him. Lopez can also show some signs of flakiness when it comes to the big points, although this is something he has dealt with very well throughout his week at Queens where he had to save match points against both Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic before he went on to win.
So, for me I think that Lopez will very possibly put in a strong showing this year at Wimbledon and I think he does have a very decent chance at reaching the last eight or at a push even the last four before he might be sent packing. And after the season he has had so far, Lopez certainly deserves a fair shake at SW19.
Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals (at a real push).
6. Novak Djokovic
At No.6 is Novak Djokovic, who remains something of a question mark this year after the amazing first half he had in 2016, winning the French open and holding all four majors at once, he had achieved his life's dream. Then....he went to pieces as a player and suffered a series of puzzling losses and poor form that has since seen him lose every one of the four majors he had held up until the French last year. Novak hired, former tennis great, Andre Agassi as his new coach as the two of them work together over the French open but Novak fell spectacularly to Dominic Thiem in the quarter finals in straight sets losing his title defence with a bagel 3rd set.
This has now left Novak really at sea with his form and for us only to ponder where his form really is at, as he is about to go back into another Wimbledon. Although one positive this week is that Novak will for the first time in seven years, play a warm-up grass event at Eastbourne and this should hopefully help give him some much needed grass matchplay before Wimblers begins.
Soooo....as to how Novak will do this year...its really hard to say, however I would still imagine that I think he will do a bit better this year than he did last and I can see him reach the 2nd week this time round. However I have to say I'm still not fully convinced that Novak's form is anywhere near good enough to see him reach the final never mind actually win it!
So for me I think Novak will possibly reach the last eight where he could very be upset although you never know but for me, I just think Novak is too much of an unknown quantity right now to be confident about him doing that well this year, so even though I say last eight, the round of 32 or 16 is also just as likely.
Prediction: 3rd round, 4th round or quarter finals.
7. Milos Raonic
Next is Milos Raonic, who had a very impressive run to the final last year at Wimbledon and also Queens where has lost out to Andy Murray both times. However Milos has struggled with injuries this year and it has seen him pull out of various events and even though he returned to play at Queens last week, he was defeated in his 1st round match by the Aussie, Thanasi Kokkinakis. This has left Raonic short on match practice just like Andy Murray and in fact both of them may meet up again at the Hurlingham club this week for an exhibition event in a last chance to play some matches before Wimbledon begins.
And its Raonic's lack of matchplay on grass that remains his biggest issue here and it leaves open the possibility that Raonic could go on to be upset here early once again. However I also think that Raonic should he be fit and well enough, he could still go on to put in a decent showing as his game is perfectly suited to grass and over five sets, he too will have a better chance to work things out.
So, I think this year Raonic, while he hasn't a realistic shot at winning the title, he can still make a decent run here and I think maybe the last 16 or 8 is reasonable estimate of his chances at SW19 in 2017.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
8. Tomas Berdych
At No.8 is Tomas Berdych, who has already enjoyed a solid start to his
grass court season at Queens last week, as he reached the quarter
finals and even had a match point against the eventual champion,
Feliciano Lopez. Berdych was of course also a Wimbledon finalist back
in 2010, so he knows his way around a grass court and if he get's a good
draw then who knows how far he might get??
However the
problem for Berdych is that he has always been mentally flaky in the big
matches and he still lacks the edge when it comes to trying to beat the
elite players in the big moments. So for me I can never really see
Berdych as the Wimbledon champion but if he does get a decent draw then
he could still go pretty far and if he catches one or two of the big
four off guard then he might just give himself a shot at going far. So
I'm think maybe the last eight is a safe bet for ol Berdy this time
round but an eventual Wimbledon champ...nah.
Prediction: quarter finals.
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
At No.9 is Jo Tsonga, who in the past has been a top grass court player and last year alone he was the only man to take a set or more off Andy Murray before Muzza went on to win his 2nd Wimbledon title. So, Jo's pedigree on the grass courts has been well established and we all know how good he is on that surface, so there is no doubt that Jo is dangerous here.
However, Jo can also be pretty erratic and inconsistent in his game at times, which can leak alot of errors given the high risk strategy he plays with, his game is mostly all-out attack even though he has some nice touch and flair that is often seen with French players. So, if Jo comes up against the the elite guys and top returners, this is where Jo will most likely start to make alot of errors and this is where he is bound to come up short.
Regardless of this though, Jo could still also make a decent run at SW19 this year and I think its a reasonable assumption that the big guy will make the last 16 or 8 before he is done.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
10. Gilles Muller
And last of all is Gilles Muller, who is pretty far down the list but maybe he shouldn't be cos he really has shown that he is an exceptionally strong grass court player this season and he made a great run to his first grass court title in the Netherlands two weeks ago and to the semis at Queens club at the weekend just there.
Gilles progress however will depend purely on how kind his draw is and there will be plenty of dangerous floaters in the men's draw as it is. So, while Gilles is an excellent grass court player he is still not impervious to being defeated by players ranked similarly or indeed below him.
However I still think that Muller can make a decent run of things this year at SW19 and just maybe we might see him be in the last 16 or 8 before his time in Wimblers is up.
Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals
Right, so that's it for now and I will be back soon once the Wimbledon coverage get's under way.
Till then bye for now!
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