Right well the US Open starts this Monday coming on 27 August, and yesterday (on Thursday 23 August) the draw for the men's and ladies was revealed, so this post will be entirely dedicated to just that.
So in the usual fine style, why not start with the ladies, and in fact why not start with the Brits, things on the ladies side of the draw for them have not been kind, as for startes Heather Watson is drawn to face Li Na, the former French Open champion in the 1st round. Let's face it, Heather while she is fast developing as a player, she will struggle to beat a player as seasoned as Li Na, so I would have to say unforunately it may be an early exit for Heather there. Also Anne Keothavong will first face the German No.1, Angelique Kerber, and again I would be very surprised if Anne could make her way past Kerber, who has been in such great form all year, but well you never know. Laura Robson however stands the best chance of making her way past the 1st round as she will face a qualifier, so just maybe one of the Brit girls might make it through.
As for the top seeds well we have Victoria Azarenka, the current world no.1, who is seeded in the top half of the draw, and she along the way the way could face Julia Georges and Sabine Liscki of Germany, and Li Na or Petra Kvitova could be possible semi final opponents, so it could be a stern test for her. Maria Sharapova who recently has returned from having a stomach virus, could face possible opponents such as Nadia Petrova (fellow Russian player), Lucie Safarova, the Czeck player, and with Marion Bartoli and also maybe Petra Kvitova as latter stage opponents. Caroline Wozniacki, the former world no.1 could also face tough opposition as in her section of the draw she could face Ana Ivanovic and Francesca Schiavone, with Serena Williams being a possible semi final opponent. Meanwhile Serena Williams herself could also face Caroline in the semis, as well as other players enroute such as Maria Kirilenko and Peng Shuai of China. And Venus Williams who has one of the toughest draws could come up against Angelique Kerber, who has already beaten both the Williams sisters (as well as many other top players!) in the 2nd round, followed by maybe Tamira Paszek, Christina McHale and Sara Errani. And finally we have Agnieszka Radwanska who in her side of the draw could face a few tricky opponents such as Dominika Cibulkova, Mona Barthel, Yaroslava Shvedova, Jelena Jankovic and Roberta Vinci. So all in all not easy!
So out of all that lot, who is my favourite to win the title???? Well I've already discussed this in my last post, but out of that lot there are a few possible favourites. Serena would be at the top, but I don't quite see her as the outright favourite to win as if there is one person that can beat, its herself, as Serena isn't always the most mentally tough of players, which we have seen already this year. So Serena can either be unstoppable of fallable, so it remains to be seen which Serena we get, but she is the top favourite regardless.
Next up in the pecking order would be Victoria Azarenka, who is the current world no.1, who is playing great tennis this year, and got off to a tremendous start winning the Australian open, followed by titles in Dubai and Indian Wells, as well as the Olympic bronze medal. And Vika's favourite surface is hard court, so if the draw works in her favour (i.e. no Serena to face) then she just might be the one to take the trophy. However one of the other players that could stop her is Petra Kvitova who, while she hasn't quite found the form that propelled her into the top 10 last year, she has re-found some excellent form recently as she won the Rogers cup title in Montreal against Li Na. However Petra has had some good results at the slams so far this year in reaching semis of the Australian open and the French open, and the quarter finals at Wimbledon. And without a doubt, Petra has the game to upset any player, and on her day she can be virtually unplayable, so she also is a strong favourite to win.
Then we have other players such as Li Na, who is already a grand slam champion from the French open last year, and has just won her first title since then in Cincinnati against Angelique Keber. And I also think that Angelique Kerber herself has a pretty strong shout at the title as well, as she really has announced herself this year, having recorded so many wins over top players, its a fair possibility that she could go on to win. Caroline Wozniacki despite her dip in form in recent times, has started to improve her game again so while she is far from the favourite, she could be a real outsider with a possible chance at winning. Caroline also is playing at the New Haven at Yale open in the US, where she has been the defending champion for the last four years running, and so far she has progressed well into the semi finals, where she will face the Russian No.2, Maria Kirilenko. However due to an knee injury, Caroline had to retire in her match against Maria Kirilenko, which has seen her winning streak at New Haven finally come to an end after four years. And its a shame it has to end in that way, and sadly for Caz her title drought continues, and let's hope she is ok for the US Open.
Although I have to say that is one thing that bugs me about these players, why do they insist on playing a tournament the week before a grand slam begins???? For example Radwanska played at New Haven this week as well, but she was forced to retire too, and now Caroline as well, so it doesn't make sense to me why they insist on pushing themselves to get a few extra matches in before hand. In the end all they are doing is punishing their bodies with injury and reducing their chances of doing well in the majors, but anyway its up to them.
And then we have Radwanska, who similar to Caroline lacks the raw power of the big hitters, but she has the craft and ingenuity to outwit alot of her players, her form has been somewhat off lately, as she has struggled with a shoulder injury, but hopefully she will do well at the US Open. Radwanska also managed to reach the Wimbledon final, so she has already proven she has got the tennis balls (so to speak!) to reach a major final, but whether or not she can win there, will depend on how her draw pans out. And before I forget, and can't believe I almost did, there is Maria Sharapova, who this year already completed her career slam by winning the French Open, and to write off Maria's chances would be insane. However her fitness might be a bit in question after having had that stomach virus, so it remains to be seen how well she will perform at the US Open, but all good and well she will be a strong contender, as long as she doesn't play Azarenka or Serena then she could be the next best favourite, and her side of the draw is relatively favourable, but she could face Kvitova in the semis, so we'll soon see.
As for the guys well... it gets interesting, and with the absence of Rafael Nadal, it opens up things slightly for the men in the draw (although not too much!). Roger Federer to start off with, as he is the top seed, has such players in his section of the draw as Fernando Verdasco, Mardy Fish, Ivo Karlovich and Gilles Simon. So its a fairly tricky draw for Rog to negotiate, but he should manage it without too much trouble up until around the quarter finals where he just might face Tomas Berdych, which could prove his first testing opponent. And then that's where things get really interesting as Federer is on the same half of the draw as Andy Murray, so the two of them could meet in the semi finals. Now that could be a really tantalising one!
As for Andy Murray himself well things aren't too kind for him either, he starts off fairly ok with Alex Bogomolov Jr, who he has defeated more times than not. Bogomolov did cause an upset in Miami last year against Andy, but that was when he was suffering his post Australian open blues, so I don't predict another upset this time. However Andy's draw is far from kind as he could still encounter tough opposition such as Ivan Dodig in the 2nd round, the talented Croatian, possibly even Robin Haase in the 3rd, who gave Andy a real scare last year, although he could alternately face Felicianio Lopez (which I'm sure he'd prefer since he so often wins easy against him!). But Andy's problems could really start in the 4th round as he might face Milos Raonic, the big serving Canadian who has already troubled him this year with a straight sets defeat in Barcelona, but in the best of 5 sets, I think Andy's experience will see him come through, but it will be a tough one if they meet. And for the quarter finals Andy could go on to face Tsonga, which doubtless will be tough, and then of course Federer in the semi final.
Djokovic has a kinder start in his draw, but by the 3rd and 4th round he could face opponents such as Marcos Baghdatis, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Stan Wawrinka, all whom could prove troublesome for the Serb, but I'm sure he will negotiate past them. However Djokovic's toughest opponent could well be Del Potro, who he might face in the quarters finals and possibly David Ferrer in the semis, who won't be a pushover either, but in their previous meetings Djokovic has tended to beat the little beast in straight sets, but we'll see. But in that respect Djokovic has got it that bit easier than Andy or Roger does, as he hasn't got Rafa to contend with, so in that way Djokovic has got one up on the other two guys. But still his draw won't be an easy one and there will probably still be some bumps alongs the way.
So out of all that who is my favs to win????? Well I would love to say Andy, but I just think that Federer is that the top favourite to win there, as he is now back to the world no.1, and he is playing his best tennis once more. Andy however would be my next favourite, and he has already proved he can upset the top two guys, by stunning both Djokovic and Federer at the Olympic games. So does Andy stand a chance here??? Yup he certainly does, and it would be terrific if he could walk away with his first ever major title from New York. But beating Federer in the semi finals will prove to be a mighty big ask, and while it won't be impossible, it will be exceptionally difficult. However if Andy maintains the form he showed at the Olympics, then he can win the title, but he has to do that to have any chance, as I'm positive that Federer will be ready for him this time. In fact it would be mad to look past Federer as the player to beat at this tournament, given his form this year, 17 slams already in the bag, and clearly he is hungry for more.
So Andy still needs to prove that he can retain that form, and that it wasn't just a one off at Wimbledon, but if he can, then this will be the springboard that his career needs. And Djokovic managed to beat Federer twice in a row over the last two years in New York in the semis, so if Andy can do that as well I'm certain he can win the title, and all he needs to do is find those miracle forehands like Nole did on the crucial points! But it is ensuring that he can make that transition of form from grass to hard court that might prove tough, and that dreaded first serve percentage might play its part in Andy's downfall. But one thing he has gotten better at is saving break points on his own serve, so he can now play the big points alot better than before, and that also is going to be key to success at Flushing Meadows. And what might be an advantage of playing Federer in the semi final is that Andy has already played the tennis he needs to play to reach the final of a major four times now, so he could also borrow from his experience to do it, and that just might be enough, even against Federer! Or.... he might not make it into the second week, but somehow I doubt that, and someone who has been knocking on the door four times already is bound to crack it sooner or later. Right that's enough on Andy!!
As for Djokovic well I am less convinced by him since he has suffered losses in big matches lately, especially at the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics. Djokovic also recently took a trouncing off of Federer in Cincinnati, and on the basis of that match I'm not entirely convinced that Djokovic can hold onto his title, but we'll see. But Nole has reached three US Open finals and the courts there really suit his game, and with neither Andy or Roger in his side of the draw, there is no one apart from maybe Del Potro to stop him from the reaching a 4th US Open final, which might just see him with a chance to clinch a 2nd title there, depending on how his draw pans out. And the US Open could see Djokovic rebound in the best possible way and it would give him the best chance to try and recapture the world no.1 ranking.
Well on that note I will leave it there, the draw is out, we know how will play who, and it will all kick on Monday, so more will follow next week. Until then that's it.
Byeeee!!!
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