Right now onto my thoughts on possible favourites for the US Open this year. But I might as well start by saying that unfortunately Rafa Nadal has confirmed that due to the ongoing tendonitis injury in his knee, that will not be playing at the US Open this year. This is a great pity for Rafa as he has already missed out so much since his shock early exit from Wimbledon, so let's hope he has a speedy recovery and get's back on the tour soon. As usual this post has several updates throughout it, which totally betray the date of the posting, just so you know!
So to kick off, I thought I'd start with Roger Federer, who so far this year has had a great season, having gotten back to the World No.1 spot, winning another Wimbledon title and surpassing Pete Sampras's record time at being at the top (287 weeks!). So in my eyes Roger is a strong favourite to win in New York, but he too will meet some stern resistance along the way, and in the past two years, he has lost to Djokovic in the semis, so it will be tough for him to reach the final. Roger also may face the currently in-form Andy Murray, who devastated him at the Olympic tennis final in straight sets, and they most likely would meet in the final, so this time round it will be even tougher for him, since Andy's best overall surface is hard court, as it Djokovic's. But with his main nemesis, Rafa not playing in the US open, due to his ongoing tendonitis, there is not too much to stop him from reaching that final if he plays well enough, which he most likely will.
In fact after Roger's most recent victory in Cincinnati over Djokovic, I think its safe to say that Roger is the absolute favourtie to win the US Open, especially as he is in great form just now. Rog has also secured his World No.1 spot for another while as well, having won in Cincy it has given him another 1000 points onto his ranking to keep him ahead of Djokovic for the time being. And it has to be said that Novak has been struggling somewhat in recent months against Roger and Rafa, and even Andy, but more on him in just a bit. As for Fed, well things are looking mighty good just now, and winning in Cincy has been the perfect way to rebound after his loss at the Olympics. But whether or not Roger will maintain such form in the US Open remains to be seen, but its not something he hasn't done before, with 17 grand slams to his name already, this most likely could be the 18th. Can he do it? Absolutely, but time will soon tell all, so we will just to have wait and see. But if I was to pick an overall favourite to win the US Open it would be Federer, as with maybe the exception of one or two players (one of them being Murray), I can't quite see anyone else living with him out there, and he also knows a thing or two about winning majors.
Next up there is of course Novak Djokovic, who is the defending champion, who defeated Rafa in that stunning epic final last year. And to write off Nole's chances of defending his title would be insane, as hard court is clearly the surface he is most comfortable on, and he already has successfully defended his title in Melbourne earlier this year. But looking closer at Novak's year overall, despite winning again at the Australian open, and a couple of Masters titles in Miami and Toronto, he has struggled somewhat to maintain his consistent form. Novak is had far from a bad year, but he's not had the best either, as he has endured some tough losses, namely at the French Open final to Rafa, having double faulted to hand the title to his main rival, which must surely have haunted for a while after. He also endured another loss at Wimbledon to Roger Federer, where he again failed to defend a title, of which he has lost several title defences this year already, and most recently Andy Murray defeated Djokovic with a straight sets win at the Olympics. So it will be a tough ask for Novak to defend his title at the US Open this year, but does he have a chance?? He does, and if he can play to his strengths then there can be no reason why he can't defend his title again, and lift that 6th grand slam title.
However Djokovic as I said has been struggling in the big matches lately and he has also just lost the final in Cincinnati to Roger Federer in quite convincing fashion as Fed dominated the Serb to win in straight sets, despite a tight second set, Rog was in full control in the match and he won 6-0, 7-6(9-7). And that has to have been the first bagel set Djokovic has had in quite some time (in fact its the first between him and Fed), which shows that he is flailing quite a bit, and while I didn't fully expect that he would have beaten Federer, I did think he could have at least pushed it to a decider. But again tiebreaks have been noted to be Djokovic's weakness, as he has a tendancy to lose concentration and in tiebreaks Federer is so consistent, so much more so than any other player. So after a remarkable 2011, Djokovic has ended back up where he was prior to his amazing season last year, by struggling to keep the momentum going. And I might be wrong but I am beginning to think that the US Open final could well feature Andy and Roger, which personally would be my choice of final for the men's, as Djokovic just isn't cutting just now. But then again I could be wrong, and Djokovic could really bounce back once he gets to New York.
And now we get on to Andy Murray (which for some reason ALWAYS ends up getting the most space in these entries!), who so far this year, despite a mediocre clay court season, has played some of the greatest tennis of his career so far. With Andy having hired his new coach, Ivan Lendl, things at the start looked to have really paid off for him, as he reached the semi finals of the Australian open and played that stunning 5 set epic match against Djokovic, before he lost. Andy also continued to have a pretty good hard court swing, where he defeat Djokovic in Dubai, before losing to Federer in the final, and in Miami where he lost to Djokovic in the final. However as I already said, his clay court season was disappointing, despite reaching the quarter finals of the French Open, he put in an erratic performance against David Ferrer where he lost in 4 sets. But once he changed to grass, Andy had the greatest grass court season of his career, as he reached the Wimbledon final for he first time in his career, and also broke the record as the first British player in 74 years to reach the final. Andy however succumbed to a tough loss at the hands of Roger Federer, but despite that he put in a really good performance, even winning his first ever set in a slam final. And he went one better at the Olympics where he pulled off the win of his career in defeating Federer in straight sets to claim the Olympic gold medal, something which still eludes Federer and Djokovic.
And its worth noting that Andy has played in three big matches this year, the first being the Aussie Open semi with Djokovic, then the Wimbledon final, and then the Olympic games final with Roger. And in each match Andy rose to the occassion and played a great match, standing up to both guys and giving it plenty. And I think based on that, Andy now knows what to do and how to handle the big matches and the pressure on these occassions, and with each step he will surely move closer to winning that first major. And if he does win it will be the 5th time lucky, just like it was for Ivan Lendl (who won his first at the French Open back in 1984), and by a strange coincidence, Kim Clijsters also took five attempts before she won her first slam title, which was also at the US Open too. So could this be a good omen????? Well you can but hope, or he could just go out in the first week! But I doubt it.
However Andy's preparations for the US Open have suffered a bit of a setback as he lost his title defence in Cincinnati, and was beaten in 3rd round by the French player, Jeremy Chardy in straight sets 6-4, 6-4. However this loss isn't the end of the world, and in the scheme of things doesn't really count for much. And I think we can probably just put this loss down to post Olympic fatigue, and with this loss it will at least give him more time to recover for what lies ahead. So come the US Open, I'm sure Andy will be back to full health and playing his best tennis, which if he does, will see him finally achieve his life's ambition in lifting that elusive major, and it will be about time too!
As for other potential favs, the next one would have to be Juan Martin Del Potro, who already has won the US Open back in 2009, and was the only man to do so outside the top 3 in the last 10 years! So in a way Delpo already has a head start, although he isn't quite playing to the same level as he was back then, and he is yet to defeat Roger Federer since then, although he did come mighty close in that exhaustive Olympics semi final. So Delpo definitely will have his chances, but it will be far from easy for him, and whoever he is drawn with it will be a tough ask to get past the likes of Andy, Roger or Nole, but again nothing is impossible. And let's not forget that Del Potro has already beaten Djokovic at the Olympics to take the Olympic bronze medal, so he could pull off another upset here.
And finally another outsider could be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who has already been in a slam final, back in the Australian Open in 2008, where he was defeated by Djokovic. However Tsonga is somewhat inconsistent in his form, and despite his big powerful game, he can be quite erratic and hasn't the best return game. But he definitely has the weapons to do damange to the big three, and he also defeated Federer last year at Wimbledon over 5 sets to reach his first semi final, and he also faced Andy Murray in the semis this year. So Tsonga will have his chances and he is a potential outsider to win the title, but given the form of the top 3 its hard to look past them.
Sooooo that's it for my US Open preview analysis for the men's.
More to follow later, but for now, byeee!
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