Right well I'll start by saying a happy new year to you's all out there as this is my first post of 2016 on this blog and it will cover my pick for the contenders for this year's Australian open title, the first grand slam tournament of the season.
So without further ado's let's give this one a closer look and see my top 10 pick of the men's favourites for the Norman Brookes challenge cup (i.e. the name for the Aussie open title).
1. Novak Djokovic
Rrrright so right at the top of the list is of course the undisputed world no.1, Novak Djokovic who last year looked utterly imperious in his form and despite one blip at the French open final he won 3 out of the 4 grand slams last season and 11 titles overall. In fact Novak had a career best for not only winning the most titles in one season but he also garnered the most prize money of any tennis player in one year as he raked in 21 million dollars (and he still won't give me any of that money!). So there is simply no getting away from the fact that Novak Djokovic remains the overwhelming favourite for the Australian open and not only that he will have a chance to level the record of wining six Aussie open titles alongside former Australian player, Roy Emerson.
And Novak has already even got his 2016 off to a winning start as he has just won the title in Doha where annihilated Rafa in the final there in emphatic fashion 6-1, 6-2, which has to be the worst defeat he has ever inflicted on his old Spanish rival.
The only possible question for Novak however is that he could possibly come undone from an inspired performance by someone enroute such as maybe Stan Wawrinka, who is the only player who has the firepower and the game to overwhelm Novak, who has already beaten Nole at the event two years ago. So either Stan could challenge Novak or maybe even someone else such as maybe Nick Kyrgios, but whoever could beat him will take an almighty performance to defeat Novak in his current form.
So for me I think Novak will be the champion this year without little doubt as he has been absolutely unstoppable for the most part last year and I don't see any reason why he won't continue to be at his favourite and most successful grand slam tournament. Prediction: champion.
2. Roger Federer
At No.2 for the sake of argument I am going to put Roger Federer who despite dropping to No.3 in the world is still playing for the most part very much like the second best player in the world (although you could argue that him and Andy Murray share the spot like some sort of timeshare!). Last year Roger had a great season and he reached two of the four grand slam finals where he showed his true class and beat a number of top players to do so. And on the basis of his results last year its a fair assumption that he still one more major in him before he retires.
However the problem for Roger is to an extent his age as he get's older he is coming up against the younger guys who are improving all the time and last year he even fell foul to a surprise defeat at the hands of the Italian, Andreas Seppi. Roger also will try and rely on his attacking game to finish off the points quickly like he usually does with ruthless efficiency but against the likes of Djokovic, this technique has limited success and he has always come up short against the World No.1.
So for me while I think Roger is still a strong favourite down under I have my doubts that if he might win the title especially if he does face Djokovic in either the semis or the final and given their seedings, Roger will be seeded 3rd which means he will most likely face Nole in the semi finals rather than the final. And that for me will tip the scales as to where Roger will most likely end up, if he meets Novak in the semis that will be his lot, but if he reaches the final and its Novak he plays again he will be second best I think. But you can never count out a guy who has 17 slams so who knows? Prediction: semi finals or final.
3. Stan Wawrinka
At No.3 I'm opting for Stan Wawrinka and even considered putting him at No.2 on the list given that he is a former champion but for now I think No.3 might be the better spot for him. Stan last year did have a bit of an up and down season but his undisputed highlight was beating Novak to win the French Open title and he has already beaten Novak in Melbourne so this puts him right in the mix. Stan also despite losing his title defence in Melbourne last year still managed to reach the semis and push Novak all the way before fading and losing 6-0 in the 5th. So despite his loss it still shows that Stan has the resilience to keep on fighting and do his utmost to defend his title.
But for me the problem with Stan is his consistency and he can be very up and down and that might affect him in Melbourne as well as he could put in a very poor performance early on and go out in the first or second round. So for me this does leave some room for doubt that Stan can go ahead and win another title down under.
So I think this year Stan can go pretty deep into the tournament like he has done before the last two years but I don't quite see him as the outright champion. Stan has the game and power to take out Novak and he has proven it before but I just think this time round Stan might well come up short but despite that I think its safe to say that Stan will reach the last four or maybe the final. Prediction: semi finals or final.
4. Andy Murray
Up at 4th place this year is Andy Murray and I've put Andy here because I just think this season Andy has alot of things hanging over his head. For starters he is about to be a father as his wife, Kim, is pregnant and due in mid February but Andy has said if she gives birth before the tournament ends he will withdraw to be with her. So that remains a cause for concern in Andy's progress this year in Melbourne alone but for Andy's sake let's hope it doesn't come to that!
Still I think Andy has a strong shout at going deep this year and I think he might will do well but there is still that danger that he could possibly be upset enroute. And one of the danger signs that showed that came from Nick Kyrgios who beat Andy this week at the team event in Perth, the Hopman cup. And if Nick can replicate that success in Melbourne then Andy obviously will be on his way out and on a plane back to the UK (but if Kim is ready to give birth round then its no big deal to him I'm sure!).
But regardless of that I still see Andy going deep into the tournament although to be honest I don't quite see him reach the final this year as he still could face an inspired opponent enroute such as Kyrgios or even Stan Wawrinka should the seedings work out then he could face the Swiss in the semi finals. So I think the last eight or four will be a very safe bet for Andy but I don't see him as the eventual champion it has to be said. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
5. Rafael Nadal
At No.5 is Rafa Nadal who last year suffered the worst season of his career and he struggled with his results and his confidence. And last year while Rafa managed a respectable result in Melbourne by reaching the quarter finals he went on to struggle badly at the majors losing out to Djokovic in straight sets at the French also in the quarters, and then losing out early at Wimbledon and the US Open.
But Rafa's form has improved since the latter half of 2015 and his results have gotten better, which saw him reach the semi finals of the ATP world tour finals. And this week he even reached the final at the Qatar Exxon Mobil open in Doha before suffering a heavy loss at the hands of his old rival Novak Djokovic. But despite that loss it does show that Rafa's results have been improving and he has been more and more consistent in the tour events, which should bode well for him down under.
However the problem for Rafa still remains to be the very best players, i.e. Andy, Rog and above all Novak who all beat him last year (although he managed to defeat Andy at the ATP finals in London) and if he can't get past them then it will be very tough for him to win a major this year. And Rafa's loss to Nole in Doha this weekend was the worst defeat he has suffered at the hands of his old rival and in their five last meetings Nadal has failed to even win a single set or take Nole to a tiebreak in any of these sets! So this really does not bode well for their rivalry which is fading pretty fast and Rafa is still leagues behind Novak's form and it will take Novak being outsted by someone else before Rafa will stand a chance at winning in Melbourne.
So prediction wise despite these concerns I still think Rafa can do well here and I can see him probably make the last eight or four but with the world No.1 very much in his way, I can't see him win the title. Prediction: quarter finals or semis.
6. Nick Kyrgios
At No.6 is the flashy, talented and trouble-making Aussie, Nick Kyrgios who has proven that he really is a star of the future and one to watch out for having already made two career grand slam quarter finals at Wimbledon and last year's Aussie open. Nick's attitude however has gotten him into hot water however on the ATP tour in recent months and most notably last year he made a crude comment to Stan Wawrinka regarding his young girlfriend which got him handed a suspended 28 day ban. So if Nick is going to go far this year then he will need to keep his attitude in check as he has already shown despite all that he has got all the talent in the world to become an elite player.
But can Nick win the Aussie open this year???? To be honest no I don't think so as he is still pretty inexperienced and even though he might cause one or two upsets along the way, I still think when it comes to very best (i.e. Novak) then he will surely be second best. However there is still no getting away from the fact that Nick has the magic eye and is fearless on the tennis court and if he can make it happen then he will make it happen. And Nick has even managed to bring home the Hopman cup to Australia this year as he won the event with his female partner, Daria Gavrilova so there is a chance he might bring home his country's slam.
However for me I think prediction wise that Nick will struggle to win his first grand slam as of yet and his breakthrough might come one day but I don't think it will necessarily be this year. But I think Nick still can go pretty deep and I think he might reach the last eight or even his first major semi final down under. Prediction: quarter finals or semi finals.
7. Tomas Berdych
At 6th place is Tomas Berdych who last year had a pretty decent season and he even managed to reach the last four of the Australian open last year before losing to Andy Murray. Tomas however did have limited success as the year went on and he failed to get past the 4th round of the remaining grand slams of the season. But Tomas still is one of the most consistent players on the tour and he has been in the top 10 for six years now and he does a big game and the power to threaten the big guys.
But where Berdych falls down is of course his mental edge as he often falters at the second last or last hurdle and that is often why he comes off second best in the big events. So for me I think its difficult to see Berdych really make a serious impact and threaten the very best players at this year's Aussie open but I still think he will do well and the last eight or four is a decent shout for the big Czeck. Prediction: quarter finals or semis.
8. Milos Raonic
At 8th place is the big Canadian Milos Raonic who has produced some pretty consistent results in the last couple of years which has seen him break into the top 10. Raonic's biggest weapon is of course his serve and he can often use it to devastating effect and in the last couple of years he has made two quarter finals and a semi final at the majors. Raonic has also worked on improving his movement and adding a bit more to his game than just his serve, which has made him a dangerous player to the rest of the field.
But where Milos falls down is that his game isn't as solid as the top players and he tends to rely on his serve more often than not to get him out of trouble and his movement will never be in the league of the likes of Djokovic or Murray. Raonic's form has also dipped a little last year as he fell out of the top 10 and is currently at 14 in the world, which throws some doubt on how well he might do at Melbourne. But that aside I still think Raonic can reach the 2nd week and the last eight or 16 is a good bet for him. Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
9. Kei Nishikori
At 9th place is Kei Nishikori who had been a bit up and down in 2015 after a stellar 2014, Kei didn't quite live up to expectations heaving reached the US Open final that year. But Kei is still a dangerous player of course and he has the speed, agility and athleticism to threaten the best guys in the game and he has caused a few upsets in recent times most notably when he toppled Novak at the US Open two years ago. The Australian open is also a tournament where Kei has played well at in the past having already reached two quarter finals there in 2012 and 2015.
The problem for Kei however is can he rekindle that great form he showed in 2014? Well the answer is I'm not sure and he also doesn't have any big weapons to threaten the other top players with which has left him at a disadvantage in the past aswell. Kei also having reached one grand slam final at the US Open two years ago saw him fail to capitalise on any chances that he had in that final against Marin Cilic and given his inexperience at that level it would be hard to see him convert his chances against the likes of Novak.
So for me I think Kei will get into the 2nd week but probably not beyond the last eight or 16. Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
10. David Ferrer
And last of all is David Ferrer who is a real veteran of the game and has been in the top 10 for years and remains one of the greatest players to have never won a grand slam. Ferrer last year had a pretty good year overall as he won five titles and he managed to make the ATP world tour finals too although he never got past the round robin stages but he still finished the year quite strong at No.7 in the world.
However age might be starting to catch up with Ferrer and already his year has gotten off to a slow start in Doha where he was beaten in the first round by Ilya Marchenko of the Ukraine, which shows one or two question marks ahead of the first major of the year. And although Ferrer has reached the Australian open semi finals twice there is always the chance he could suffer an early defeat there.
But what we know for sure about Ferrer is that he is one of the game's great fighters and competitors and he will give his all before he goes down. Ferrer also can draw on alot of experience when it comes to the slams so it could see him still go fairly deep into the tournament.
So I think Ferrer depending on his draw will maybe reach the last 16 or 8 before he exits. Prediction: 4th round or quarter finals.
And that's it for my look at my pick for the contenders at this year's Australian open, which kicks off in a week's time so can't wait for that although it will mean some sleepless nights for me checking the scores of matches during the night!
But anyway I'll be back on here when the action get's underway so let's hope its a cracking event.
Until the next one its bye for now.
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