Friday 29 January 2016

2016 Australian Open Part 4: Men's semi finals

OK so now to move onto the men's semi finals from the Australian open and we will find out who made it through to the finale of the first grand slam of 2016.

So let's take a look.....

Right well the first match was a hotly anticipated one between two greats of the game, Novak Djokovic, the defending champion and World No.1 in what was sure to be something of a classic.  However.... the match itself was far from one of their classics as it started with Nole playing the best tennis you will ever likely to see and he made the 17 time grand slam champion looked ordinary as Novak whitewashed Roger in the first two sets by breaking him twice to grab a two set lead in just under an hour!  However just when you thought a straight set gubbing was in order, Roger somehow managed to wrestle his way back into the match and he managed to break Nole's serve in the 3rd set and he went on to serve it out to keep himself alive trailing two sets to one.  And in the 4th set, the early signs showed great promise as both playerrs played some great points particularly at 4-3 where Roger played a spectacular backhand pass to save a break point and go 30-30.  But it was short lived as Novak pounced on Roger's errors and he grabbed a 5-3 lead and confidently served out the match to reach his 6th Australian open final and recorded a very convincing four set victory in 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.

Well it has to be said this match fell way short of expectations even though it had some entertaining points in the latter half of the match once Federer managed to get himself into it a bit.  But I also have to say I have never seen Novak play any better than he has so far in this tournament, especially in those first two sets where he played devastatingly good tennis that made Roger Federer look like a public park player!

And Roger no doubt will be disappointed with the result especially as he was going for a change of tactics in the first two sets but they just didn't work and in the end for large parts of the match he was totally outplayed.  And it also remains a problem for Roger as he continues to struggle against his Serb rival who just has too much game for him at the moment and while Roger is capable of winning another slam with Novak in the way its very doubtful that he will win one again.

As for Novak well the tennis he played approached God-like levels where he did just about everything right and his form reminded me of that during his final with Rafa at Doha earlier this month were Novak utterly destroyed the Spaniard in a similar fashion and Rafa had literally no answer for him.  And its this form that makes Novak look very ominous for the rest of the season but we will see how he get's on in the final first.

And so for the second semi final match which was between Andy Murray, the World No.2 and the big serving Canadian, Milos Raonic in what promised to be an interesting encounter.  And the match itself proved to be a terrific contest between both men and they both played some great tennis for the crowd on Rod Laver arena.

And the match itself started with Raonic getting a break of serve from Andy which allowed the Canadian to use his superior serving to nudge ahead and take the opening set.  In the 2nd set it was far more evenly pegged until 6-5 wher Raonic looked to head into a tiebreak but Andy made his move and broke the Canadian to level the match.  In the 3rd set play went by serve and with few break points available either side of the net it went to a tiebreak where Raonic took full advantage and got the minibreak and sealed it 7-4 to grab the two sets to one lead and put him within a set of his first major final.  However in the 4th set Raonic started having problems with his fitness as he went off court for a medical timeout and when he came back on Andy pounced on him and nabbed the break and secured the 4th to level the match and take it to a deciding 5th set.  And in the 5th set, Raonic's fitness levels dropped off as he struggled with a leg injury which let Andy grab a double break and he then served out the match to secure his 5th Australian open final after a thrilling five set battle winning in 4-6, 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2.

Well there is not much doubt that this was the match of the tournament so far as it was a thrilling contest for the most part before Raonic's level sadly dropped off due to injury in the 5th set.  However Raonic still managed to battle on and keep himself just in the match in the 5th set as he became injured.  But for the first three and a half sets of the match it has to be said that Raonic looked to be in his best form playing his best tennis at a grand slam level and if he hadn't gotten injured then there is every chance he might have won the match even in four sets.  So when Raonic lost out in the 5th set it was hard not to feel sorry for him as you could see how disappointed he was to lose the match and he later said in the press conference that it was the most heartbroken he had felt on the court.

However Raonic's level of tennis throughout the tournament was highly impressive and by reaching another grand slam semi final he showed that he is one player that could possibly win grand slams in the future.  And if Raonic does improve his fitness and strength over these long matches then surely one day he will be able to become a champion although he still got a way to go yet he is getting there.

As for Andy well overall it was an excellent performance and he showed his grit and determination very well in this match and more importantly he served well for most of the match too, which helped as he was up against one of the game's best servers.  And with that he has given himself another shot to win the grand slam title that continues to elude him.

And this brings me onto the final which is now set between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, the world's No.1 and No.2.  And this all begs the question: who will win it??????  Well.......I have to go with Novak as his form throughout last year was unbelievable and at the start of this year he has lived up to that promise by continuing to play tennis that is just out of this world.  And Novak's form in this tournament alone for the most part, the Gilles Simon match aside, has just been staggering and given how he has played I'd find it very hard not to bet on him winning his 6th title in Melbourne.

And last year there were actually a few seeds of doubt over Nole's form going into last year's final given that he struggled against Stan Wawrinka in their semi final while Andy looked very convincing against Tomas Berdych in his semi final.  So before the match I was fairly confident that Andy would win it but then the real Novak Djokovic showed up and after splitting the first two sets, Djokovic ran away with it.  But this year there are no doubts behind Novak's form and there are no questions that need to be raised about him so there is no reason for me to think that I will be duped into thinking that he won't win the final.  And for that reason alone he has to be the favourite to win the title.

However.... that's not to say that Andy won't have any chance as he certainly does have a shot at winning the title and there are still some factors could go in Andy's favour. 

1. For starters he won the Davis cup for Great Britain last year and no doubt that will give him confidence to do very well in the final on Sunday and maybe use it as a catalyst for having a great year in 2016 just like Novak did in 2011 after Serbia won the Davis cup in 2010.

2. Andy can also take a bit of heart from the fact he was one of only four men that managed to beat Novak last year when they met in the final of the Rogers cup in Montreal.  And this win should give him a bit of confidence as before that he lost eight straight matches to the Serb and it was like he was suffering a mental block in how to get past Novak but with that match he finally managed to do it and if he hadn't won that match then I would give him even less chance of winning so that match does show there is some hope that Andy can cause the upset.    

3. Also Andy is about to become a father with his wife Kim Sears waiting on the arrival of their baby, which is due in mid February and just maybe that could also inspire him to do well in the final (although he get's a call saying she is going into labour during the match that might put a spanner in the works for him!).

4. The pressure will also all be on Novak to win the title and virtually no one realistically expects Andy to win the final and that could give Andy a slight advantage as he can safely go in as the underdog with no real expectation at all on his shoulders.  However unfortunately for Andy, Novak is no stranger to dealing with pressure and he knows how to save break points and could even probably do it in his sleep! 

Although on a side note I have to say that Novak also has the upper hand in that he has had two full days of rest before the final as he played his semi final on Thursday whereas Andy played his on Friday so he only get's one day off in comparison.  And this is something I never really liked about the Australian open as it is the only grand slam event where the semi finals are split between Thursday and Friday and for all the other slams, the semi finals are played on the same day on a Friday (although I think at the US Open they are played on the final Saturday and final on the Monday).  So that way each player has the same time to rest and there are isn't another player that has had more time off than the other.  In any case Novak is sure to be the more refreshed player with more in the tank going into the final taking this into account.    

5. And lastly a positive factor that could also help Andy is that (update 30.01.16) his brother Jamie Murray finally won his first men's doubles grand slam title today in Melbourne which could also give Andy a confidence boost and some inspiration going into the final too.  Although it was worth noting that Andy stayed up and watched his brother win the match from the stands on Rod Laver arena at after 1am in the morning when as Jamie put it "shouldn't you be in bed??!".  Its just aswell the singles final is on at night time!    

So as for my prediction.....well I have to go for Novak as he is the best tennis player in the world right now, he is playing at the peak of his game and this is his favourite tournament and his record in Melbourne finals so far does not lie with an overwhelming 5-0 result.  Novak also just happens to do everything that bit better than Andy and while there is not much difference in the quality of their return game, Andy's serve just isn't consistent enough to really keep him level with Novak's current form over five sets.  So in conclusion it would be daft to bet against Novak and I think he will win this one in four sets (or if he plays in God mode again maybe even straight sets!) to claim his sixth Australian open title.

However....if Andy can take heart and inspiration from his brother's doubles victory then that might give him the boost he needs to win the title.  Its also worth noting that it took Andy five attempts to win his first grand slam where he eventually won at the US Open and this is now his fifth Australian open final, so just maybe that might be a good omen for him and hopefully one that might see him finally lift the title six years after his first final down under.

But for now I am sticking with my original prediction that Novak will win the title on Sunday and most likely it will be four sets although if he continues his God-like performance like he did against Federer then we could be looking at a straight sets defeat for the British No.1 (but let's hope not!).   

Anyway so that's it for now and I will be back once the results are in for the ladies and the men's finals and we will see who emerged as the champions down under.

Until the next one its bye for now!


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